Posted on
5/7/2008 4:08:43 PM
MLB Baseball Betting - Milwaukee at Florida
By Charles Jay
BetUS MLB baseball betting odds: Milwaukee -115, Florida -105; Total 10.5 (Under -120, Over - Even)
The Milwaukee Brewers (16-16), shut out on Tuesday, will try to bounce back in the second game of their series against the Florida Marlins (18-14) on Wednesday night, when the two National League teams meet up at Dolphin Stadium in Miami. Game time is 7:10 PM ET.
David Bush (0-3, 6.75 ERA) will go to the mound for Milwaukee, while Burke Badenhop (0-2, 7.58 ERA) gets the start for Florida, in a battle of right-handers.
At BetUS Sportsbook, Milwaukee is listed as a -115 favorite (Florida is -105), with a total of 10.5 runs (the Under is -120, while the Over is even money).
Here are some of the MLB Baseball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
(NOTE: These trends may also revert back to the 2007 season)
* MIL has lost five of its last six games
* MIL has played 12 of its last 18 games UNDER the total
* MIL has lost five of its last six road games
* FLA has lost four of its last seven games
* FLA has played five of its last seven games OVER the total
* FLA has played five of its last seven home games OVER the total
In the HEAD-TO-HEAD baseball betting trends:
* FLA has won 13 of the last 19 meetings
* MIL has won six of the last ten meetings
* Ten of the last 11 meetings have gone UNDER the total
* FLA has won eight of the last ten meetings as the home team
* The last six meetings in Miami have gone UNDER the total
Scott Olsen signaled himself as a force to be reckoned with on Tuesday. The big left-hander, who was banged around by the Dodgers in a 13-1 loss in his previous start, pitched two-hit ball over 8-2/3 innings as the Marlins scored a 3-0 shutout win.
On Wednesday night it's Burke Badenhop, who has not given Florida the kind of effort Olsen has, to say the least. Badenhop did, however, have his best outing of the season six days ago against Los Angeles, giving up five hits over six innings and striking out six, even though his team lost by a 5-3 score.
David Bush was eighth in the Rookie of the Year voting in his first major league season, but his WHIP and ERA figures have gotten progressively worse. This season the right-hander is sitting with a 1.65 WHIP and has walked twelve batters in less than 24 innings. Bush has thrown only 56% first-pitch strikes.
Milwaukee is now on a four-game losing streak, and its pitchers (including the bullpen) have allowed 4.2 walks a game, which is second from the bottom in the National League. Florida has won three of four and is back in first place (by percentage points) in the National League East.
Ten of the last 11 meetings have gone under the total, but I'm not sure I trust the pitchers in this one. Rather, we'll side with the Marlins, the -105 underdog in the BetUS Major League Baseball betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: FLORIDA (-105)
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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com touches all the bases as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)