Posted on
4/16/2008 5:21:05 PM
MLB Baseball Betting - Kansas City at Seattle
By Charles Jay
BetUS MLB betting odds: Seattle -120, Kansas City - Even, Total 8.5 (Under -120, Over - Even)
The surprising Kansas City Royals (7-5) just snapped a three-game losing streak on Sunday, and on Monday they'll look to forge ahead as they play the Seattle Mariners (6-7) in an American League contest that will start at 10:10 PM ET at Seattle Safeco Field (natural field).
Right-hander Zach Greinke (2-0, 0.60 ERA) will look to build on his sizzling start for the Royals, while southpaw Jarrod Washburn (1-1, 3.00 ERA) gets the assignment for the Mariners.
At BetUS Sportsbook, Seattle is listed as a -120 favorite (Kansas City is even money), with a total of 8.5 runs (the Under is -120, the Over is even money).
Here are some of the MLB betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
(NOTE: These trends may also revert back to the 2007 season)
* KC has lost three of its last four games
* KC has won four of its last six road games
* KC has played its last seven games UNDER the total
* KC has played four of its last six road games UNDER the total
* SEA has won four of its last six games
* SEA has played four of its last six games OVER the total
* SEA has won four of its last six home games
* SEA has played four of its last five home games OVER the total
In the HEAD-TO-HEAD baseball betting trends:
* SEA has won five of the last seven meetings
* SEA has won 14 of the last 20 meetings
* Nine of the last 13 meetings have gone OVER the total
* SEA has won eight of the last ten meetings as the home team
* Four of the last six meetings in Seattle have gone OVER the total
Zach Greinke has really been fulfilling his promise, it appears, and he appears to be fully over the kind of emotional problems that plagued him a couple of years ago. Greinke has been almost flawless in his two starts thus far, against two of the American League's best teams (Detroit and the Yankees), giving up 12 hits, 16 base runners and ONE earned run in 15 innings. Greinke challenges hitters, not necessarily with the heat, but with exceptional control. He's been phenomenal - perhaps the best starting pitcher in the majors so far.
Jarrod Washburn of Seattle hasn't been so bad himself. The Seattle lefty showed marked improvement from his first start, when he permitted three runs in five innings against Baltimore, to his second, a seven-inning stint against Tampa Bay where he allowed six hits and a run. Last year he showed some mastery over this Royals lineup, giving up only 11 base runners in 15 innings (0.73 WHIP ratio) over two winning starts.
Kansas City has not been giving its pitchers a lot of support, which makes the efforts of Greinke and fellow starter Brian Bannister all the more notable. The Royals are averaging three runs a game, and have scored six runs in their last four.
But Greinke looks like he could be developing into a legitimate "shut-down" guy, and we're not interested in guessing when he's going to blow up. Rather, we want to look at the total. Since both pitchers look in decent form, and at least one of these sides is having difficulty scoring runs, we'll move UNDER the 8.5-run total as it is posted in the BetUS Major League Baseball betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: UNDER 8.5 (-120)
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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com touches all the bases as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)