Posted on
4/30/2008 1:43:43 PM
MLB Baseball Betting - Atlanta at Washington
By Charles Jay
BetUS MLB baseball odds online betting : Atlanta -120, Washington - Even; Total 9 (Over -115, Under -105)
The Atlanta Braves (12-14) lock horns with the Washington Nationals (10-17) in an NL East game set for an early start - 4:35 PM ET at Nationals Park, a rare mid-week afternoon contest that will unquestionably bring out some politicians who want to take half the day off (don't they always?).
Right-hander Jair Jurrjens (3-2, 3.45 ERA) gets the start for the Braves, while the Nationals will counter them with another right-hander, Shawn Hill (0-0, 5.40 ERA).
At BetUS Sportsbook, Atlanta is listed as a -120 favorite (Washington even money), with a total of nine runs (Over is -115, the Under is -105).
Here are some of the MLB Baseball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
(NOTE: These trends may also revert back to the 2007 season)
* ATL has lost five of its last seven games
* ATL has played nine of its last 12 games UNDER the total
* ATL has lost six of its last eight road games
* ATL has played six of its last eight road games UNDER the total
* WASH has won four of its last six games
* WASH has lost 17 of its last 24 games
* WASH has played ten of its last 15 games UNDER the total
* WASH has won five of its last seven home games
* WASH has played five of its last seven home games UNDER the total
In the HEAD-TO-HEAD baseball betting trends:
* Five of the last seven meetings have gone UNDER the total
* ATL has won four of the last seven meetings as the road team
* Four of the last five meetings in Washington have gone UNDER the total
For Jair Jurrjens, it was another serviceable outing last time on the mound, as he held the Mets to three runs in six innings. he has already faced more hitters than he did all of last year, and they are hitting just .214 against him. And the good news is that he's given up just one home run. Last year he had a ratio of 63% balls hit in the air to 37% balls hit on the ground. This season those respective numbers are 42% and 58%, which shows progress. Jurrjens' last four starts have gone under the total.
Shawn Hill has always thrown a lot of ground ball outs, and this season that figure has increased to 65% in his limited action. But he is giving up a .318 average and .455 slugging percentage to opponents. The problem with Hill this season has been forearm stiffness, which kept him on the disabled list until just recently. And injuries have always seemed to cut Hill short of making his full complement of starts over a season.
It is no secret that Washington manager Manny Acta is nervous about Hill going innings, given the recent injury history. Atlanta did not come into this series on a roll, and Washington has been playing better than it has since the opening week of the season. But we trust Atlanta's starter more, and recognize that Washington's bullpen is third from the bottom, with a 4.38 ERA.
We're going to side with the Braves, the -120 favorite in the BetUS Major League Baseball betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: ATLANTA (-120)
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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com touches all the bases as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)