posted April 21, 2008 at 16:48 in MLB Free Picks
MLB Baseball Betting Action Los Angeles at Cincinnati
The Los Angeles Dodgers, (7-10, 8-9 O/U) are hoping respected manager Joe Torre can do for them what in did in 12 seasons for the New York Yankees – help take the team to a World Series title.
The Dodgers however, have gotten off to a sluggish start under their new manager and enter tonight’s matchup with the Cincinnati Reds, (7-11, 8-9 O/U) coming off an emphatic three-game sweep in the BetUS Sportsbook at the hands of the Atlanta Braves in which they were held to a single run in each contest while allowing 16 runs over the three games including a pair of 6-1 losses that sandwiched a 4-1 loss on Saturday.
The Red who also hired a big-name manager in veteran Dusty Baker, aren’t playing much better at the moment, having dropped seven of their last nine though they did manage to beat the Milwaukee Brewers 4-3 in ten innings on Sunday.
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Sunday's loss was the Dodgers’ ninth in their last 12 games in the BetUS Sportsbook after getting off to a solid 4-2 start and Torre said his team is pressing.
"We have to find a way to exhale," said Torre. "We feel a lot of tenseness. We have to start swinging the bats. ... It's frustrating. Everybody feels the heat."
Cincinnati avoided a sweep at the hands of the Brewers when Edwin Encarnacion and Paul Bako hit back-to-back home runs in the 10th before hometown hero Ken Griffey Jr. drove in the game-winner with a run-scoring single with two outs.
"I'm still excited," Baker said. "We needed that one so badly - big-time. That was a good script. I can sleep tonight. I haven't slept worth nothing."
The Dodgers will send starter Brad Penny (2-2, 2.96 ERA) to the mound hoping he can lead them to another victory as he did in his last outing - an 8-1 victory over Pittsburgh on Wednesday in which he allowed just one earned run on five hits in 5 2/3 innings while striking out four.
Penny is 2-2 in four starts covering 24.1 innings and has struck out 13 batters and walked 6 while not allowing any home runs.
Cincinnati starter Matt Belisle is coming off the disabled list to make his first start of the year after being out since March with a left forearm strain. Belisle was 8-9 last season with a 5.32 ERA in 30 starts last season.
Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my analysis and NBA Betting Picks:
The Dodgers are 9-0 in Penny’s last 9 Monday starts.
The Dodgers are 8-1 in Penny’s last 9 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
The Reds are 24-56 in their last 80 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.
The Reds are 3-7 in their last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
The Under is 6-1 in Penny’s last 7 road starts.
The Over is 4-1 in Penny’s last 5 starts as a favorite.
The Under is 4-1 in Reds last 5 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
The Under is 4-1 in Reds last 5 home games.
The Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Cincinnati.
The Dodgers are 4-0 in Penny’s last 4 starts vs. Reds.
The Dodgers are 10-2 in the last 12 meetings.
Analysis: Take the Dodgers to touch up Belisle in his first start of the year and end their losing ways while getting another solid performance from their own starter Brad Penny.
MLB Free Picks: Dodgers 5 Reds 3
07:10 PM EST MLB Odds
Brad Penny - R -1½ +110
Matt Belisle - R +1½ -130
Over 9 -110
Under 9 -110
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