posted March 26, 2008 at 16:27 in Triple Crown Betting Trends

“Pyro Stays on Top While War Pass Drops”

What happened to War Pass? I think I know but I don’t believe his owner knows. War Pass’s connections explained his flop in the Tampa Bay Derby on the ideas that he didn’t like getting squeezed at the start and then he didn’t like the track. That makes absolutely no sense. Speed horses like War Pass don’t care what they run on. It could be glass for all they care. Now, getting squeezed at the start and then hating the idea of sand hitting his face is something altogether different. That means that the horse just doesn’t have the guts necessary to battle other horses.

War Pass threw in the towel. There is no excuse for that. As Bob Baffert said regarding Silver Charm, his Kentucky Derby winner, when Charm started throwing in the towel during rough races, “He just got smart. He realized that the harder he tried, the more he hurt. He got tired of feeling that hurt.”

That’s the problem with War Pass. If the horse threw in the towel after getting squeezed by two wannabe Derby contenders and then getting dirt thrown in his face from four horses, imagine what he’s going to feel like doing when he faces a field of twenty other horses all of whom have the quality to beat him out of the gate.

War Pass may be a wuss of a horse. I see sprints in his future.

But there are other horses to discuss in this week’s power rankings! Let’s get to it!

Kentucky Derby Power Rankings

1. Pyro - - BetUS odds 4 to 1 - - Pyro’s odds rose some. That’s good news to me! Pyro is still the best 3 year old on the planet. In the Louisiana Derby he waited for an opening and then took off. He was much closer to the pace then he was in the Risen Star. This guy is for real.

2. Cool Coal Man - - BetUS odds 20 to 1 - - Now that War Pass took a crap maybe Nick Zito will concentrate on the best 3 year old in his barn, Cool Coal Man. This guy should be better in his next start. Trip handicappers will point out that he got an easy trip in the Fountain of Youth. Whatever. He’s the most seasoned horse on this list. That will mean something come Derby Day.

3. Colonel John - - BetUS odds 12 to 1 - - I still believe in this guy even though the first time he runs on dirt competitively will be in the Derby. Yes, that does scare me, but his connections are solid and his daddy was awesome.

4. Denis of Cork - - BetUS odds 16 to 1 - - Will only get one more prep before the Derby. To me that’s not good. But you can’t discount his talent, he is undefeated, and he can run in any style he wants to. He could be Barbaro. Or, he could be the biggest flop in the Derby since Jumron back in 1995.

5. Elysium Fields - - BetUS odds 20 to 1 - - Out of Barclay Tagg’s three potential Derby horses, I really think this guy is the best. Big Truck is not bred to run 1 ¼ miles. He’s not even on this list. Tale of Ekati’s form has slowly been declining since his maiden victory. I think he’s a broken horse. He’s not on this list either. Elysium Fields has a lot of upside.

6. Texas Wildcatter - - BetUS odds 40 to 1 - - Sure he broke his maiden at Arlington Park, but he’s out of Monarchos, trained by Todd Pletcher and he’s been really, really good in his last two races.

7. Visionaire - - BetUS odds 20 to 1 - - He’s bred to run long and has the right style to win the Derby. Of course, his best race was on one of the craziest, sloppiest, most horrendous tracks I have ever seen in my life. That’s okay. He’s still worth a look.

8. King’s Silver Son - - Call for BetUS odds - - Call BetUS customer service and get odds on this guy. Trust me. You will definitely want to do it. Steve Asmussen, Curlin’s trainer, threw him to the wolves after his maiden win. All he did was finish second to Sierra Sunset in the Grade III Rebel Stakes. No word on whether or not Asmussen will point him to the Derby, but I don’t see why not. He could a classic late-blooming Derby winner. Nice!

9. Georgie Boy - - BetUS odds 10 to 1 - - Like Colonel John he’s bred to run all day. Like Colonel John he hasn’t ever run on dirt competitively. Unlike Colonel John he’s trained by Kathy Walsh who really doesn’t know all that much about getting a horse to the Derby. I like Georgie Boy. I really do. But the 10 to 1 is just too low for me when his trainer is that green regarding the Derby.

10. Adriano - - BetUS odds 35 to 1 - - He’s legit, okay? First, he’s trained by Graham Motion who trains a number of very good turf horses. Second, he has already run three times this year. So, the bottom is there. Finally, his daddy is A.P. Indy. I think he improves all the way up until Derby Day.

Keep checking the Locker Room all through the Triple Crown season, as we will cover the trainers, horses and jockeys in each race. You can get your early Kentucky Derby Odds at Churchill Downs bets in now in the BetUS sportsbook in the Future / props section, under Horse Futures: 2008 Kentucky Derby Betting.