Posted on 5/2/2008 3:17:15 PM

Kentucky Derby Online Wagering - Top Three Finishers Will Be…

By D.S Williamson

The Kentucky Derby has this goofy way of choosing post positions. They let the trainers decide where they want their horses to start by first pulling out trainer names from a hat. The trainers then put their horses “colors” onto the post position that they want their horse to start from.

Goofy and altogether irrelevant. Did Bob Baffert really want Real Quiet to start from post position 2 in the 1998 Kentucky Derby? Did D. Wayne Lukas feel that Charismatic had his best chance to win by starting from post position 16 in 1999?

Ludicrous and ridiculous and downright harmful to BetUS online racebook enthusiasts. It’s better from Richard Dutrow’s point-of-view, for instance, that Big Brown start form post position twenty instead of being on the rail. Uh…if he’s on the rail and faster then the first five or six horse to his inside, which Big Brown would have been, I seriously doubt Brown would have been outrun to the first turn. Now, he might have to go wide. So what’s better again?

All of this brings me to a very important point that I must share with all of you before getting into my top three picks for the 134th Kentucky Derby. Trainers, for the most part, know squat when it comes to the Derby. Sure, a guy like Bob Baffert could get lucky and win two, three, four, maybe five of these things, but as far as getting a horse ready for it, there is no “magic formula”.

Once the gates open it’s all up to the horses and jockeys. Either the horse has it, like Fusaichi Pegasus, or the horse doesn’t. It’s as simple as that. That’s why Jerry Bailey took 5 million dollars from Godolphin Racing one year to ride their horse, even though their horse had no chance to win, because Bailey knows that there are too many factors in the Derby to definitely know if you have the horse or not. Heck, your average $5,000 claiming race is chock full of unknowns. This is the Kentucky Derby, folks!

Okay, with that being written, let’s get down to some serious handicapping.

The 134th Kentucky Derby

Race 10 - Churchill Downs

1 ¼ miles on dirt

In handicapping this Kentucky Derby one thing stood out to me. That is the fact that everybody and their grandmother is picking Big Brown to win. I was very close to picking the Richard Dutrow charge myself. I want Big Brown to be the next coming of Secretariat. Everybody does, but it just doesn’t add up. Big Brown, to this point in his career, is more along the lines of Balto Star who finished 14th in the 2001 Kentucky Derby, then a speed horse like War Emblem who simply got brilliant at the right time. There is no way that the 20th post doesn’t hurt Big Brown. There’s just no way. The lack of seasoning, this will be his fourth lifetime start, also adds to the mystery. How good can this colt be? As good as he wants to be. But, will he? I’m going to have to pass. I do believe that Big Brown will get the lead in this race and probably keep it into the stretch drive. At that point, nature will take over in the form of him getting tired and the closers will start picking up the pace. Brown will finish up well, but he won’t win the Kentucky Derby. He will be lucky to finish in the top five.

The horse that I like, the horse that will take my online racebook win wager money, is Pyro. There are a few reasons to like Pyro. The first is why everybody hates him. He ran about as bad as a horse could on the Polytrack at Keeneland in the Blugrass Stakes. Man, he was just awful, but that’s okay in my eyes. Why? Because one bad race does not turn a horse like Pyro into a bum. The future book favorite for the Kentucky Derby is now a juicy 6 to 1 shot. I like it. Pyro performed one of the greatest moves I have ever seen in horse racing by waiting for an opening in the Risen Star Stakes and then pulling away in the stretch. He was awesome. He ran against War Pass in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and would have caught that rival if the race had been 1 1/8th miles instead of 1 1/16th miles. He’s coming from the nine hole where jockey Shaun Bridgemohan can guide him anywhere he wants in the race. The horse has class, has the trainer in Steve Asmussen, has the ability to stalk or come from the clouds and will be a nice price in the Kentucky Derby. This is the horse to bet on in the Derby.

For second I love the looks of long-shot Z Fortune. Z Fortune went four wide around both turns in the Arkansas Derby and still lost by only ¾ lengths to Gayego. He also has the class, coming out of a true 1 ¼ mile horse named Siphon, and has finished out of the exacta only once in six starts. He has that Giacomo look about him. It happened before. Why can’t it happen again? Oh, and Asmussen trains this guy too. Yes, my friends, I’m calling this year’s Kentucky Derby a Steve Asmussen Exacta! Beware Z Fortune in the 134th Kentucky Derby.

My third pick in this year’s Kentucky Derby is another long-shot. His name is Court Vision and like Z Fortune he had to go wide in his Kentucky Derby prep. While all eyes were on War Pass, who had the lead in the Wood Memorial, and Tale of Ekati, who got the dream trip on the rail, Court Vision was going four wide around the turn and desperately trying to get to the finish line first on a track that usually favors speed and in particular, inside speed. Court Vision only lost by 1 and ¾ lengths in that race. I thought he ran great. I also think he could improve in the Kentucky Derby. His trainer is named Bill Mott. Yep. The same guy who put Cigar on the dirt and won all of those graded victories. Court Vision’s jockey is named Garrett Gomez. Gomez is the best jockey in the world right now. Court Vision has a chance to provide a huge upset in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

1. Pyro

2. Z Fortune

3. Court Vision

Keep checking the Locker Room all through the Triple Crown season, as we will cover the trainers, horses and jockeys in each race. You can get your early Kentucky Derby Odds at Churchill Downs bets in now in the BetUS sportsbook in the Future / props section, under Horse Futures: 2008 Kentucky Derby Betting.