Posted on 4/11/2008 5:00:21 PM

Kentucky Derby Betting – Can the Derby Winner Have Another?

By Charles Jay

Instead of boring online sports betting readers with trying to pick a winner of the Kentucky Derby right now, or even forecasting who's going to be In the Derby, I chose to focus primarily on a couple of special props at BetUS that I found particularly fascinating. Well, not so fascinating in and of themselves, but with regard to the analysis we can do to come to a decision on how to play.

They involve what will happen to the eventual Derby winner in moving forward to other steps of the Triple Crown. Let's take them one at a time:

BetUS Triple Crown Betting Odds

WILL THE DERBY WINNER CAPTURE THE PREAKNESS STAKES?

No -230

Yes +180

Betting the "NO" here would reflect the opinion that there is less than a 30.3% (10/33) possibility that the same horse to win the Derby will also win the Preakness Stakes, and the "YES" bettor is figuring there is more than a 35.7% (5/14) possibility. Of course, what is going to happen in the first two Triple Crown races is unknown to us, so we must analyze in terms of how things have patterned themselves in the past. According to the research we compiled, this prop would have come in:

* 31 times in the last 100 years = 31%

* 31 times in the last 90 years = 34.8%

* 30 times in the last 80 years = 37.5%

* 25 times in the last 70 years = 35.7%

* 21 times in the last 60 years = 35%

* 20 times in the last 50 years = 40%

* 16 times in the last 40 years = 40%

* 11 times in the last 30 years = 36.7%

* 7 times in the last 20 years = 35%

* 5 times in the last 10 years = 50%

As you can see, this has happened with much more frequency over more recent intervals. In fact, over the last eleven years, the Derby/Preakness double has happened more often (6 times) than it has not (5 times).

There is no value, according to these figures, in the "NO" bet. But we could, with some degree of conviction, perceive a value in the "YES" side of the prop. since it has out-performed the percentage (35.7%) in four of the last five intervals, and all but one of the "in between" five-year intervals as we go back over a 45-year period. Take a look:

* 18 times in the last 45 years = 40%

* 13 times in the last 35 years = 37.1%

* 8 times in the last 25 years = 32%

* 6 times in the last 15 years = 40%

* 2 times in the last five years = 40%

So I think we can move with a little confidence on the YES part of this prop.

As far as the Derby/Belmont prop is concerned, we can move with even more confidence:

BetUS Triple Crown Betting Odds

WILL THE DERBY WINNER CAPTURE THE BELMONT STAKES?

No -350

Yes +250

There is naturally a filtering process that goes on as we move through the Triple Crown races, to where a horse that won the Kentucky Derby and lost the Preakness may not go to the Belmont Stakes, or where other horses who were not involved in one or both of the previous Triple Crown races will saddle it up for the final jewel, thus changing the dynamic of things. And contributory to that is the fact that the Belmont is contested at a mile and a half.

Betting the "NO" reflects the opinion that there is less than a 22.2% chance of a Derby/Belmont combo happening, while the "YES" reflects faith that there is at least a 28.6% possibility to strike gold. As we look at the intervals, we see that it was much more common in the distant past than in more recent decades:

* 24 times in the last 100 years = 24%

* 24 times in the last 90 years = 27%

* 22 times in the last 80 years = 27.5%

* 18 times in the last 70 years = 25.7%

* 11 times in the last 60 years = 18.3%

* 8 times in the last 50 years = 16%

* 7 times in the last 40 years = 17.5%

* 3 times in the last 30 years = 10%

* 1 time in the last 20 years = 5%

* 0 times in the last 10 years = 0%

See those percentages? Notice that not only does not one of them meet with a 28.6% probability, rendering the "YES" side impotent, the last six don't get close to 22.2% frequency. And there is almost a uniform decrease in its frequency from decade to decade. It's not much different with the "in between" five-year intervals either:

* 8 times in the last 45 years = 17.8%

* 6 times in the last 35 years = 17.1%

* 2 times in the last 25 years = 8%

* 1 time in the last 15 years = 6.7%

* 0 times in the last 5 years = 0%

I think the percentages are on our side with a "NO" play here. To put it in perspective, on a scale of 1-4 stars, we would make this one the 4-star play while the "YES" for the Derby/Preakness combo would be more of a 2-star play.

Keep checking the Locker Room all through the Triple Crown season, as we will cover the trainers, horses and jockeys in each race. You can get your early Kentucky Derby Odds at Churchill Downs bets in now in the BetUS sportsbook in the Future / props section, under Horse Futures: 2008 Kentucky Derby Betting.

(Charles Jay of http://www.ebookies.com never "spits the bit." He is a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)