posted March 28, 2008 at 19:40 in Triple Crown Betting Trends

This week’s top Kentucky Derby prep will be run in sunny (hopefully) south Florida. The $1,000,000 Florida Derby-G1 drew a full field and the drama began immediately following the post position draw on Wednesday.

The Kentucky Derby is limited to 20 starters, with the deciding factor being earnings in graded stakes. Only three runners in the Florida Derby field have amassed graded earnings to this point, so for most this is their one shot to book a trip to Louisville. You better finish no worse than second if you want to feel safe about your chances of moving on.

Since Gulfstream Park reconfigured its racetrack four years ago there has not been a single winner from posts 11 or 12 going 1 1/8 miles. Runners breaking from these posts at this distance are a combined 0 for 29. This does not bode well for the morning-line favorite Big Brown who drew the far outside slot. Between now and post time on Saturday it would be no surprise to see one or more of the outside-drawn runners scratch from this race and point for upcoming preps at Oaklawn Park or Keeneland. There simply is too much riding on one race to head into it with the deck stacked against you.

The Florida Derby-G1 will be broadcast on ESPN2 beginning at 5:00PM (ET) Saturday.

Let’s take a closer look at the entire field.

1. FIERCE WIND (6/1) — One of two in here from Zito barn, still reeling from the War Pass debacle in the Tampa Bay Derby. This colt in unbeaten in three starts around two turns and has already won over this track at this distance. Won the Sam F Davis ($200K) last time out in stakes-record time and the horse he beat, Big Truck, came back to upset War Pass in the Kentucky Derby. Has never run particularly fast but he has the coveted inside post, the same draw that Zito-trained Cool Coal Man had when winning the Fountain of Youth.

2. SMOOTH AIR (12/1) — Currently ranked 30th in graded earnings so he could use a strong showing today. Finished 3rd behind Fierce Wind at Tampa Bay last time out when making his first start around two turns. Won the local Hutcheson-G2 in early January, defeating Halo Najib who came back to win a $150K stake at Ocala before running 2nd in last Saturday’s Lane’s End Stakes-G2. Talented enough but must prove he can handle the distance.

3. DA’ TARA (20/1) — The second Zito runner in here, this colt is owned by Robert LaPenta who also owns War Pass. Broke maiden locally at this distance for his only win and couldn’t handle today’s rival B B Frank in his most recent start. Appears way overmatched.

4. TOMCITO (12/1) — A winner in 4 of 5 starts in his native Peru, the US debut of this colt has been highly anticipated (thanks in large part to YouTube). Has already won at 1 ½ miles and 1 ¼ miles and he’s already beaten older company. How his South American-form transfers over remains to be seen, but given the hype he’s likely to be an underlay in this spot.

5-COOL GATOR (20/1) — Finished 2nd to Nistles Crunch four weeks ago, a race not originally on the schedule. Connections are keeping open the possibility of a trip to the Kentucky Derby but their ultimate goal is the Queen’s Plate in Canada. Have a feeling he’s better than most in this field and at 20/1 morning line he’s definitely worth tossing into the gimmicks.

6-NISTLE’S CRUNCH (10/1) — New-Jersey bred colt hasn’t missed the board in six starts and comes off a nice win at this distance over Cool Gator. Beyers are on the rise and his last figure of 89 is not far-removed from most of these. Getting his fifth different rider in as many starts, not the best of signs for a runner trying to make the Kentucky Derby.

7-B B FRANK (20/1) — Claimed from Zito and LaPenta two starts back for $62,500. New connections were hoping to claim a potential stakes runner for the New Jersey circuit but instead got an instant return when this gelding won an allowance race at odds of 41/1. The effort was clearly the best of his career but he didn’t beat much — the runner-up is still a maiden and the 3rd-place finisher was today’s rival Da’ Tara. This would be another surprise.

8-ELYSIUM FIELDS (4/1) — He has really turned the corner since adding blinkers. Jumped straight from the maiden ranks into the Fountain of Youth-G2 and was beaten just a ½-length after breaking from an even wider draw. Needs to upgrade his $70K in graded earnings (currently ranked 33rd) with a strong showing today and have a feeling he will come through with another big effort.

9-HEY BYRN (5/1) — Won both starts at the meet by a combined 20 ½ lengths, including a strong win at this distance last time out. On the downside he beat only five rivals in each of those races and each time he had a much better post. There is $0 in graded earnings in the bank so he needs a big effort today as he faces the toughest test of his young career.

10-MAJESTIC WARRIOR (15/1) — With $164K in graded earnings (ranked 17th) he may already have a spot in Louisville but he certainly needs to improve his form. After winning the first two starts of his career he finished a well-beaten 6th behind War Pass in the Champagne-G1 and a disappointing 7th behind Pyro in the Louisiana Derby-G2. Trainer Bill Mott was not happy with the draw and left open the possibility he will scratch and head to Oaklawn for the Arkansas Derby.

11-FACE THE CAT (8/1) — Won both starts at the meet back in January before being purchased privately and sent to Todd Pletcher. Early indications were he was being pointed along the Arkansas Derby trail but the new connections opted to stay put in south Florida. Those plans could easily revert back given the poor draw for this race. Has a win over Nistle’s Crunch to his credit but this is his first attempt against stakes company and his first attempt beyond one mile. Morning line price is a bit too low.

12-BIG BROWN (3/1) — Currently the “wise guy” horse for the Kentucky Derby following his 12 ¾-length comeback win 24 days ago. His only other race produced an 11 ½-length win over the turf at Saratoga. So that’s two wins by a combined 24 lengths, not too shabby for a colt with real foot problems (he’s continually battled quarter cracks). Trainer Richard Dutrow and jockey Kent Desormeaux passed up a trip to Dubai to remain in Florida for this race but how do they feel now given the terrible draw? This colt is obviously talented but he has $0 in graded earnings and thus has one shot to make the Kentucky Derby. With so much riding on this final prep race do they go ahead and take their shot knowing that history is against them? Tough call for sure, but if this was my horse I’d pass and look for the next option.

SELECTIONS: (8) Elysium Fields, (1) Fierce Wind, (5) Cool Gator, (12) Big Brown

Keep checking the Locker Room all through the Triple Crown season, as we will cover the trainers, horses and jockeys in each race. You can get your early Kentucky Derby Odds at Churchill Downs bets in now in the BetUS sportsbook in the Future / props section, under Horse Futures: 2008 Kentucky Derby Betting.