Posted on 4/30/2008 1:26:51 PM

Kentucky Derby Betting - Will Artificial Track Affect Kentucky Derby Betting?

By D.S Williamson

There’s an old saying in online betting circles that a good horse can run on any surface. Secretariat ran on both grass and dirt. So did Barbaro. Of course, Secreatariat and Barbaro were great horses, not just good horses. Lava Man can run on dirt or grass but he can’t pick his feet up outside of the state of California. What does all of that mean?

Not much. It means that horses are individuals. Some will like certain parts of a racetrack. Take Street Sense, last year’s Kentucky Derby winner, for instance. Street Sense loves the rail. Get him in a race where he can shoot up the rail and the horse is almost unbeatable. He didn’t care for the mud so much in the Breeders’ Cup last year and wasn’t too fond of being on the outside in the Travers’ at Saratoga where he barely beat a very game Grasshopper. But on the rail at Churchill Downs the horse was money.

That’s the goofy thing about this year’s Kentucky Derby. The truth is that nobody knows how good a horse like Colonel John really is because Colonel John has never run on any surface other then the cushion track at Santa Anita. Here’s something to think about - - nobody has ever been able to explain to me what “cushion” track is. I mean, I know it’s something, I see it out there every Saturday when I go to Santa Anita, but nobody really knows what makes it cushion track.

Supposedly, there’s some formula. I don’t know what it is. I do know that Colonel John is a terrific horse on it. I don’t know if he is a terrific horse on dirt.

Colonel John’s daddy is Tiznow. So, the thinking is that a Tiznow horse will relish the Churchill Downs racing strip. Tiznow beat a horse by the name of Giant’s Causeway in the Breeders’ Cup Classic as a 3-year old at Churchill Downs. That’s how good Tiznow was on dirt. Then again, Tiznow breeds three times a day and has a 95% hit rate with his live foals. All of his kids aren’t running this weekend in the Kentucky Derby. Some of his kids are running for hay at River Downs and Fairmount Park.

So the fact that Colonel John’s daddy is named Tiznow doesn’t mean an awful lot.

It also doesn’t mean a whole lot to me that Pyro ran up the track in the Bluegrass Stakes held on the Polytrack. The Polytrack is a synthetic surface that has a known formula. Developed by ex-trainer Michael Dickinson, the Polytrack is supposed to be kinder on horses.

I’m not sure if that’s altogether true. Pyro and Visionnaire sure didn’t look like they were having fun out there as they kept spinning their wheels on that stuff.

There is no way that Pyro all of a sudden became a bad horse. This is the same horse that made that eye-popping move in the lane at the Fairgrounds in the Louisiana Derby. This is the same horse that made a move in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile while War Pass was galloping along in the mud. Pyro is a good horse with a great trainer. Polytrack, schmollytrack.

But, I do believe that the fact that Colonel John is being hyped as the only thing standing in Big Browns’ way to Triple Crown glory will affect the wagering this Saturday.

Colonel John, in my eyes, will be the biggest underlay in Kentucky Derby history should he go off at odds of 7/2 or less. There’s just no way to know if he will like Churchill Downs. He’s also pretty slow. Yes, speed does matter in the Derby. Ask those jockeys and trainer who were afraid to go after War Emblem in 2002.

In contrast to Colonel John, Pyro will go off as the decided overlay in the Kentucky Derby should we all get 7 to 1 or higher on him.

Maybe, we should forget about the artificial racing surfaces altogether. Thunder Gulch ran terrible in the Bluegrass Stakes, run on dirt at the time, in 1995. He finished first in the Kentucky Derby three weeks later. Then, he won the Belmont Stakes in early June.

I could see Pyro doing the same thing this year. Colonel John? Maybe, maybe not, but the odds won’t outweigh the risk. I can guarantee you that.

Keep checking the Locker Room all through the Triple Crown season, as we will cover the trainers, horses and jockeys in each race. You can get your early Kentucky Derby Odds at Churchill Downs bets in now in the BetUS sportsbook in the Future / props section, under Horse Futures: 2008 Kentucky Derby Betting.