Posted on 4/14/2008 12:53:51 PM

Kentucky Derby Betting - Prep Races Provided Only One Stand-Out Horse

By D.S Williamson

Horse betting faithfuls should note there is a single Kentucky Derby prep race left this year. That’s the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland Racecourse this weekend. The Lexington has provided a winner of the Derby before. In 1999 Charismatic, after finishing last of five in the Santa Anita Derby, gave it the good old college try in the Lexington Stakes. Even though the Lexington is only 1 1/16th miles, Charismatic ran brilliantly. He stamped his ticket to the Kentucky Derby and then won the Run for the Roses just two weeks later.

Will the Lexington provide another top contender in the first Saturday in May? Maybe, but I doubt it.

America has already found its top horses for the Kentucky Derby. The slew of prep races that started in late February has pushed a number of horses into the limelight. Of course, we need to remember that Churchill Downs will be absolutely electric that day. The numerous wagers that BetUS is going to offer should make any true horseplayer drool.

Not only that, but the favorite hardly ever wins the Kentucky Derby. For every Fusaichi Pegasus and Smarty Jones, there has been a Thunder Gulch, Ferdinand, Sea Hero, and Giacomo.

Let’s take a look at some of the key prep races this Kentucky Derby season - - the winners, and the horses that might have come out of the races with a long-shot chance at the roses.

Fountain of Youth Stakes - - Cool Coal Man won the race and then ran a clunker on Keeneland’s polytrack just this past weekend in the Bluegrass Stakes. I prefer to look at the Fountain of Youth as a true indication of how good Cool Coal Man could run in the Kentucky Derby. No other horse came out of this race that impressed me save for Monba who lost to Cool Coal Man by 33 lengths in this race. Why does Monba have a chance come the first Saturday in May? Keep reading!

Louisiana Derby - - This race in early March was all about Pyro. He absolutely exploded in the stretch at the Fairgrounds and dominated his rivals. Pyro stamped himself as the sure-fire favorite for the Kentucky Derby until the horrible race he ran in the Bluegrass Stakes just this past Saturday. I still think Pyro has a shot on Derby Day. That polytrack at Keeneland is a funky surface. Pyro has gone from everybody’s darling to a long-shot play in the Kentucky Derby. I like it!

Lane’s End Stakes - - Adriano was absolutely brilliant on the Turfway polytrack when winning this key prep race for the Kentucky Derby. The only problem is that Adriano will go into the Derby off of five weeks of rest. Yes, I know it worked for Barbaro two years ago. That was Barbaro. Adriano is not Barbaro. Neither Halo Najib nor Medjool, the second and third-place finishers in the Lane’s End, have proven to be quality animals.

Florida Derby - - The favorite in the Kentucky Derby will be the winner of this race - - Big Brown. Big Brown is undefeated. Most impressive is the fact that he won the Florida Derby while breaking from the 12th hole. A horse hadn’t done that at the 1 1/8th mile distance at Gulfstream since Gulfstream Park resurfaced their track some four years ago. That’s impressive. Of course, Big Brown will go into the Derby as the chalk and having only run in three lifetime races. The last horse to do that was Curlin who is a monster and still finished third in the Derby. Is Big Brown a monster? Maybe, but he also has soft feet. That could cause him some issues before the Derby.

Santa Anita Derby - - Colonel John was impressive winning SoCal’s top 3-year old prep race for the Kentucky Derby. The problem with John is that the first time he will taste dirt in his mouth is when he runs in the Kentucky Derby. Because he’s out of Tiznow, he most certainly should appreciate dirt surfaces. However, he might be one of those cushion track experts. I sure hope not because I want to see this horse do well in the Derby. The only other knock is the fact that he will probably go off second choice come Derby Day. The odds may be too low to swallow on this guy.

Wood Memorial - - Tale of Ekati looked impressive, but all he had to do was rundown a speed horse who had gone a half mile in less then 45 seconds. Are you kidding me? War Pass was easily the most impressive horse in the Wood Memorial this year. He did all of the running and actually kept going. Now, I’m not saying that War Pass will win the Kentucky Derby - - he’ll still face tons of pressure - - but I am saying that War Pass is the better horse, will be getting better odds, and will run better then Tale of Ekati in the Kentucky Derby.

Illinois Derby - - Racapturetheglory is a straight speed horse who beat another speed horse, Golden Spikes, in a race that should have absolutely no bearing on this years’ Kentucky Derby. The favorite in this race, Denis of Cork, ran terribly. So, he probably won’t make it into the Kentucky Derby starting gate. That’s okay, because not a single horse in the Illinois Derby was impressive enough to even garner long-shot status.

Toyota Blue Grass Stakes - - Pyro ran so badly in this race that some of the smartest people in horse racing are writing off his chances come the first Saturday in May. He did exactly what I thought he might. He obviously hated the polytrack surface and so no need to keep trying hard on a track that he wasn’t going to be successful on. Pyro is still numero uno in my book. The winner, Monba, could easily turn into another Pletcher monster. The race sort of set up for Monba, but I won’t knock him for it. I do believe that his lack of seasoning will hurt him. His stable-mate who finished second, Cowboy Cal, is a straight front-runner. That means the Kentucky Derby pace will burn him out before the final turn.

Arkansas Derby - - Gayego, the winner of the Arkansas Derby, was ultra-impressive. He stuck close to the pace and then held off Z Fortune for a much needed victory. Gayego has tons of talent, but the problem I see with him is one of distance limitations. His daddy, Gilded Time, is known for producing sprinters not mile and a quarter horses. That should spell doom for Gayego. The second place finisher, Z Fortune, could provide some heart-pounding Giacomo type effort in the Kentucky Derby, but I doubt it. The track will have to come up funny the way it did in 2005 when Giacomo beat both Afleet Alex and Bellamy Road. I’m not expecting that. So, I’m not expecting Z Fortune to do much.

Keep checking the Locker Room all through the Triple Crown season, as we will cover the trainers, horses and jockeys in each race. You can get your early Kentucky Derby Odds at Churchill Downs bets in now in the BetUS sportsbook in the Future / props section, under Horse Futures: 2008 Kentucky Derby Betting.