Posted on
4/17/2008 1:20:22 PM
Kentucky Derby Betting - Power Rankings - Pyro Drops but Not That Far
By D.S Williamson
Every week it seems like a sure-fire winner runs like a dud in one of these prep races. Horse betting on the Derby is going to be the best it has ever been this year, so don’t miss out. First, it was War Pass a few weeks ago in the Tampa Bay Derby. Now, it’s Pyro who has thrown a dud by running like a pony in the Bluegrass Stakes.
Pyro wasn’t even close over the Kenneland polytrack in the Bluegrass this past weekend. But he does have an excuse which I will explain in the rankings.
As far as the winner of the Arkansas Derby, Gayego, is concerned, he ran a brilliant race this past weekend in Arkansas. I have my doubts as to whether or not he can get the distance, though.
Let’s get to the rankings!
Kentucky Derby Rankings
1. Big Brown – BetUS odds 2 to 1 - - He’s at the top because Pyro ran that bad over the polytrack, but I don’t think the odds are worth it. He’s going to have to be a super-horse to win the Kentucky Derby with so many things going against him. He might be a super-horse, but I really can’t take the 2 to 1 in a 20 horse field. Too many things can happen.
2. Pyro – BetUS odds 6 to 1 - - Let’s throw that race out, shall we? I’ve watched that race at least seven times and I have to say that Pyro just didn’t care for the track. It looked like he was spinning his wheels out there. That doesn’t bother me. Polytrack is goofy. Pyro did what I thought he might do which means we’re getting the odds on him that we feel we deserve.
3. Colonel John – BetUS odds 9/2 - - If he likes dirt, then it will be hard to go against this guy. I’m waiting for him to train on the Churchill Downs strip before I fully endorse. I’m not that crazy about the low odds, but after Pyro and Big Brown the rest of these horses just don’t have that Derby feeling about them. He’s a logical third choice.
4. Monba – BetUS odds 12 to 1 - - The things to like about this horse are that he’s trained by Todd Pletcher, is out of Maria’s Mon, and has only run one bad race in his career. The thing to dislike is the fact that his best race was over the polytrack, ala Dominican last year, and the Derby will be his third race of the year.
5. Eight Belles – BetUS odds 20 to 1 - - A filly in the Derby and ranked in the Top-Five? Yes. There are reasons to really like this girl. First, her daddy is named Unbridled’s Song. That means she can run all day. Second, she is trained by Larry Jones who trained Hard Spun last year. Finally, she’s won five out of nine races in her career. She’s also really fast and can stalk the pace in the Derby. Yes, there is a lot to like about this girl.
6. Cool Coal Man – BetUS odds 40 to 1 - - Hey, Thunder Gulch’s run wasn’t anything to smile about in his Bluegrass and he came back and ran lights out in the Derby. Coal Man might have just got tired in the race which is a bad sign. Or, maybe he hit a part on the polytrack that didn’t agree with him. He looked like a winner at the top of the stretch which tells me the latter. I’m willing to forgive at 40 to 1.
7. Visionaire – BetUS odds 40 to 1 - - If I’m willing to forgive Pyro and Cool Coal Man, then I have to forgive this guy for his sub-par effort in the Bluegrass. He got hung out wide in the first turn as well. I do think he has room to improve. He’s going to have to win the Derby, but he can do it. He will certainly be ready coming out of the Michael Matz barn.
8. War Pass – BetUS odds 14 to 1 - - Let’s revisit some things: he’s only run one bad race in his life when he was squeezed back at the start, he ran 6 furlongs in 1:11 in the Wood, off the rail, and still managed to hang on for second, and he is easily the fastest horse going into the Derby. They said that War Emblem couldn’t wire the Derby and look what happened? Maybe we all wrote this guy off too soon.
9. Adriano – BetUS odds 30 to 1 - - Has the breeding to win the Derby and the experience but is he good enough? I’ve got something against horses that improve on polytrack. Monba really didn’t improve. He just ran his race. This horse actually improved in the Lane’s End and that scares me.
10. Gayego – BetUS odds 15 to 1 - - He’ll be in the worst position possible in the Derby. He doesn’t want to get into a speed duel with War Pass (who does?). He’s bred to sprint so hanging four or five lengths behind the lead does him no good. I love this guy’s heart but let’s be honest here - - he has no chance of winning the Derby unless everything, and I mean everything, goes his way. Too much learning too soon for Gayego.
Keep checking the Locker Room all through the Triple Crown season, as we will cover the trainers, horses and jockeys in each race. You can get your early Kentucky Derby Odds at Churchill Downs bets in now in the BetUS sportsbook in the Future / props section, under Horse Futures: 2008 Kentucky Derby Betting.