Posted on 3/3/2008 7:43:28 PM

Kentucky Derby Betting Odds - Power Rankings

By D.S.Williamson

Colonel John sure looked good this past Saturday beating El Gato Malo and Reflect Times in the Grade III Sham Stakes at Santa Anita Park. Of course, the win needs to come with an asterisk. Monterrey Jazz, the favorite for the Santa Anita Handicap on the same card, opened up a ten length lead versus a bunch of glorified allowance horses and couldn’t hang on for the win. All of the television “experts” said that Jazz couldn’t hold on because he can’t get the mile and a quarter which was the distance of the Santa Anita Handicap.

I don’t buy it. I believe that Jazz was hurt by the goofiness of the cushion track. Nobody has been able to explain to me what exactly cushion track is. I think it’s the sort of stuff that changes from not only day to day but maybe even race to race. The reason I bring this up is because the first time Colonel John is likely to see conventional dirt is the day he steps onto the Churchill Downs main track and begins training for the Kentucky Derby.

How good is Colonel John? I have no idea. He should love conventional dirt as his daddy, Tiznow, won the Breeders’ Cup Classic twice - - once at Belmont Park and the other at Churchill Downs. But horses are creatures of habit. They get used to one thing and then don’t want to change it. That’s why Street Sense ran like a rocket at Churchill Downs last year and then was just okay in most of his other races. This is the first year where a serious Kentucky Derby contender is going to come exclusively from a track that sports an artificial surface. I don’t like that. I don’t like it at all.

Still, the Kentucky Derby is the Kentucky Derby, right? Last week I listed ten horses that I liked based on odds. This week, since it is March, I am basing who I like based on ability and then saying a thing or two about their BetUS odds.

1. Pyro - - BetUS odds + 450 = If he does what he’s capable of, then the + 450 on this guy on the first Saturday in March will be a gift. His Beyer speed figure was low for the Risen Star win, but man he looked awesome and he could run much faster then that if he had to. I believe that he is the type of horse that can stay close to a slow pace if he needs to. Don’t be fooled. This guy is not a plodder who needs a pace melt-down, like Giacomo, in order to win the Derby. He’s more like Victory Gallop who should have won the 1998 Derby.

2. Denis of Cork - - BetUS odds + 1400 = Undefeated and will definitely get the necessary 3 preps, heck maybe even 4, before the Derby. Bred to a winner and comes out of a barn that is underappreciated. Will be racing out of Arkansas which has produced some serious Kentucky Derby contenders like Lawyer Ron, Afleet Alex and Victory Gallop and one winner in Smarty Jones. There’s lots to like here!

3. Colonel John - - BetUS odds + 700 = The odds are terrible and I really can’t recommend, but I have to put him up here because if he has even a snippet of what his daddy had in terms of guts on the racetrack, then he could probably run on broken glass and be close in the end. Even a snippet…

4. Elysium Fields - - BetUS odds + 1800 = Great odds on a horse who already proved that he could survive a bad trip. I also like the way that he has busted a three digit Beyer figure, comes out of a barn that has won the Derby, and is bred to run all day. He too should get at least one more prep which means he will go into the Derby off of three prep races. I love that!

5. Cool Coal Man - - BetUS odds + 1400 = He didn’t have the bad trip that Elysium Fields had, but you know what? This guy has seven races under his belt with one more coming and he has learned something out of every single one of those races. He’s going to be well-prepared for the derby and I love the fact that he can run-up close, stalk, or come from behind. He’s incredibly tractable and his daddy, Mineshaft, was all business on the racetrack. Don’t discount Zito’s number two!

6. War Pass - - BetUS odds + 450 = The odds are too low and what did he get out of that allowance race? He could be a speed freak, but so was Zito’s Bellamy Road. Even if he can rate, his best Beyer figure came on that ridiculous Monmouth Park strip on Breeders’ Cup Day. A lot of horses freaked that day. He’s a top-ten horse, but Zito appears to be protecting him. I won’t recommend until he has to go up against serious speed and hangs on for a win.

7. Barrier Reef - - BetUS odds + 6000 = Not off the Derby trail yet so I’ve got to put him somewhere, right? His daddy, Mizzen Mast, was awesome and this guy has won 3 out of 4. I need to see him in a race soon or I’ll have to drop him from the list, but, man, the odds are so high on this guy! And out of his four races he’s gotten better, or has learned something, in every single one. He’s trained by Tom Albertrani for Darley Stable. There’s no reason for this guy not to cause some ripples. He’d better show up in the Wood Memorial.

8. Roman Emperor - - BetUS odds + 8000 = Finished second to Barrier Reef in his last race, he too needs to show up some place soon. He’s a good horse having gone 2 -2-1 out of his five races and will get the necessary three preps under him before the Derby, but he comes out of a barn that doesn’t usually produce Kentucky Derby starters. Still, he’s under the radar and on paper he’s just as good as most of the big name horses.

9. Majestic Warrior - - BetUS odds + 2000 = All the talent in the world, but will get only two preps before the Derby. Sure, it worked for Street Sense but that was because Street Sense was a freak at Churchill Downs. I don’t believe in the two prep scenario. A horse has to be ridden hard in three races, in my mind, in order to get the necessary seasoning for the Derby. There are some exceptions, of course, but usually that was because those horses were just monsters or loved the track like Street Sense did. He’s good enough, but I just can’t put faith in the training method.

10. Giant Moon - - BetUS odds + 5000 = His first race of the year was on January 8th. So, I’m holding out hope that his trainer Richard Schosberg will put two more preps into him. I like this guy a lot. He can run close to the pace or upfront and he appears to have a kick at the end. The problem is that if there is no other speed save for War Pass in the Derby, then this guy is the one who’s going to have to pressure the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Champ. That won’t be good.

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