Posted on
3/7/2008 4:59:54 PM
Kentucky Derby Betting - Just the Facts Madam
By Brian Mulligan
For those that remember the Cuban missile crisis there was once a popular TV detective show, in the days of black and white television, called Dragnet. The famous sergeant on the program had a simple line that he used all the time to interrogate people: "Just the facts, Mam, just the facts." And thanks to the Courier-Journal, horse bettors can ascertain a ton of facts about the upcoming Kentucky Derby at a mouse’s click.
Sure, the May 3 Kentucky Derby will be a new thing and trends may not stand up but this sport we all know and love called horse racing is all about what happened in the past, so let’s examine some things that have already been etched in stone.
One thing that cagey horse bettors always try to evaluate is the key preps during the Triple Crown trail and CJ has a nice stat on the result.
Five races have had the greatest impact on the Big Day in recent years. They are the Arkansas, Florida and
Santa Anita Derbies, the
Blue Grass Stakes and the Wood Memorial. A total of 39 of the past 50 Kentucky Derby winners have been first or second in one of those races.
You also have to come to Louisville on top of your game as since 1937, only 6 winners have finished off the board in their final start before the Derby. In the past 50 years, only 2 horses have been worse than third and that pair both finished fourth.
When clever horse bettors start burning the midnight oil for that Derby winner, they should know that having a super race at Churchill Downs is NOT the signal that a win on Derby Day is imminent.
Only 5 Derby winners since 1990 ran well at CD before the Derby.
Just like right now in the National Basketball Association with almost every team involved in trading players at this point, most teams are looking for that experience edge to carry them through crunch time of the playoffs.
The same is true of the Triple Crown Trail. Horse bettors should be aware that since 1937 only seven winners have had fewer than 3 starts at 3 before the Derby. Street Sense pulled off that feat last year but before that you had to go back to 1983 and Sunny’s Halo.
Finally, you have to be careful of the rookie human factor. The Kentucky Derby can be like the Super Bowl, with all the hype and all the attention; it is easy for humans and horses to get distracted.
The top horseplayers in the game know that from 2003 to 2006 winning trainers in the Derby, Barclay Tagg, John Servis, John Shirreffs and Michael Matz all were in the Derby for the very first time.
But from back in Fonzie’s days, only 15 since 1955 were successful in their first attempt with a Kentucky Derby runner.
These are facts that horse bettors should be aware of and as the Triple Crown Trail unfolds, these facts will be revisited in order to try to sniff out a winner.
Keep checking the Locker Room all through the Triple Crown season, as we will cover the trainers, horses and jockeys in each race. You can get your early Kentucky Derby Odds at Churchill Downs bets in now in the BetUS sportsbook in the Future / props section, under Horse Futures: 2008 Kentucky Derby Betting.