Posted on 5/2/2008 3:06:45 PM

Kentucky Derby Betting - Is Big Brown the Big Stud this Saturday?

By D.S Williamson

I sort of wish that Richard Dutrow, Big Brown’s trainer, had started him onto the path to the Kentucky Derby much earlier in his two-year old season. It would have been interesting to see how he would have fared running in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile against another top speed horse, War Pass.

It would have also given us more clues as to how Big Brown is going to run this Saturday. The problems with betting on Big Brown have absolutely nothing to do with the fact that it’s the Kentucky Derby that he will be running in this Saturday. I have bet on numerous races, thousands by my estimation, at over one-hundred tracks. Name a track in the United States, and, yes, I have placed a wager on a race at that track. This includes lovely Prescott Downs with their very interesting bull-ring in the heart of Arizona.

You’re not a real BetUS online racebook bettor until you’ve lost more money on a race then what they’re offering in the purse!

At the end of the day, the best horse, especially at the Grade I level, usually wins the race. Sure, Giacomo got lucky, but Monarchos was definitely the best horse in his Kentucky Derby. War Emblem, Thunder Gulch, Funny Cide, Charismatic and Real Quiet all went on to win another leg of the Triple Crown. They also all paid in the double-digits to win on the first Saturday in May.

So the idea that only “long-shots” win the Kentucky Derby is ludicrous. If Big Brown is as good as everybody is saying that he is then forget it. The horse should win, right?

Maybe. Maybe not.

Again, if we approach the Kentucky Derby like any other race, we need to really concentrate on how to wager the race. That means looking for the horses with the best value dependent on their chances of actually winning.

What I mean is that at 8 to 5 Big Brown is probably a bad bet. At 2 to 1 he might be a great bet. It depends on what you think of the horse.

That’s reason number one. Here are some other reasons to pass on Big Brown this Saturday.

- He’s only run three races in his life. It doesn’t mean he can’t get the distance. It does mean that he will have to work harder then ever before to get the distance. Some very good horses just throw in the towel once their lungs start to burn - - just like humans.

- He ran an incredible race in the Grade I Florida Derby. Six furlongs in 1:10 from the 14 hole going a mile and an eighth is absolutely amazing. Of course, it may also mean that he “bounces” to the moon.

- How fit can this horse be? Barbaro won off a five week layoff. But Empire Maker couldn’t do it and in terms of talent he was probably just as good of a horse as Barbaro. Is Big Brown as good as Barbaro or Empire Maker?

- Keeping with the five week angle, what if Big Brown is so pumped on Derby Day he goes out there and tries to get six furlongs in 1:10 again? 1:10 at Churchill Downs is not the same as 1:10 at Gulfstream Park. Big Brown might be a freak but even a freak needs conditioning in order to run his best race.

- Big Brown is only three-years old. He’s still a baby. He probably has no idea what he’s doing out there yet. He ran greenly in the stretch in the Florida Derby and there wasn’t a single horse near him. How green will he be when Pyro and Eight Belles start running up towards him in the Churchill Downs stretch? Is he going to freak out and throw in the towel?

These are all good reasons not to bet on Big Brown. Then again, I could just be making excuses. Who knows? Big Brown could be the next coming of Secretariat - - or the next coming of Balto Star. Balto Star got a 112 Beyer in his Kentucky Derby prep going 1 1/8th miles in the Arkansas Derby. Then, he proceeded to finish last in the Derby three weeks later.

All I’m saying is be careful about putting too much money on Big Brown this Saturday. By next Saturday night, he might be an afterthought.

Keep checking the Locker Room all through the Triple Crown season, as we will cover the trainers, horses and jockeys in each race. You can get your early Kentucky Derby Odds at Churchill Downs bets in now in the BetUS sportsbook in the Future / props section, under Horse Futures: 2008 Kentucky Derby Betting.