Posted on 4/8/2008 6:16:10 PM

Kentucky Derbies Then and Now - Very Interesting

By Greg Melikov

Seven years ago I wrote: Logic usually doesn’t figure in horse betting, especially picking the Kentucky Derby champion. During the past quarter-century, only two horses who figured to romp did: Fusaichi Pegasus, 2000, the first victorious favorite since Spectacular Bid, 1979.

Since ’01, two lukewarm favorites won: Smarty Jones, 4-1, in ’04, and Street Sense, 9-2, ’07. During a 17-year span, nine favorites scored from ’61 when Carry Back won by three-quarters of a length to ’77 when Seattle Slew triumphed by 1 ¾ lengths.

I also wrote: Winning the final prep before the Run for the Roses isn’t nearly as important as hitting the board.

That holds up. Since ’01 three ran first in their final prep while three were runners-up. Giacomo finished fourth in the ’05 Santa Anita Derby before surprising at Churchill Downs and returning $102.60. It was the largest payoff next to Donerail’s $184.90 in ’13.

During the ’90s, two horses that ran fourth in their final prep won at Louisville: Thunder Gulch in ’95 and Sea Hero in ’93 – both in the Blue Grass at Keeneland.

I also wrote: No Derby winner with fewer than five career starts has won since the great Exterminator in 1918. That remains true, but could change this year if Florida Derby champ Big Brown wins at Louisville in his fourth career start.

Back then I wrote: No horse with less than one victory has triumphed. Giacomo did – seven months after breaking his maiden at Santa Anita. However, if you go decades back, three maidens smelled the roses: Buchanan, the 11th Derby champ in 1884; Sir Barton, who won the Triple Crown in 1919; and Brokers Tip, victorious by a nose in 1933.

I noted: No gelding has triumphed since ’29. Funny Cide ended that streak in ’03.

I also pointed out: No competitor since ’71 who won the last prep outside the United States has scored. That streak remains unbroken – Venezuelan thoroughbred champion Canonero II was the last 37 years ago.

And I wrote: Post positions sometime play a part in deciding the race (63 of the 127 winners came from the inside seven slots while only 13 won from No. 13 and out).

Four of the last seven winners broke from posts 5 through 7. Giacomo drew No. 10 while Monarchos scored from 16 in ’01. From ’88 through ’00, seven that smelled the roses drew post 10 and outward. Thunder Gulch and Fusaichi Pegasus did from post 16.

If you have a favorite jockey or trainer, take note that nine different riders were aboard Kentucky Derby champs sent out by nine different conditioners since ’99.

Kent Desormeaux rode the first of his two winners at Louisville when Real Quiet scored in ’98. He has a chance to repeat aboard the sensational Big Brown.

So are we expecting too much from the Florida Derby champ? Perhaps, but it appears Big Brown might go into the 134th Kentucky Derby as the favorite since he ended up the 3-1 choice in Pool 3 of the futures wagering. He wasn’t even listed in the first two pools.

The son of Boundary’s five-length victory in the Florida Derby on March 31 was third best in the past dozen years. In ’03, the record 9 ¾ lengths was posted by Empire Maker, runner-up to Funny Cide at Louisville. In ’96, the margin was 5 ¼ lengths by Unbridled’s Song, who didn’t hit the board that year.

In the past 28 derbies, the winning margin averaged about two lengths. For the seven years beginning in ’01, Derby champs averaged nearly 3 ¼ lengths, with the ill-fated Barbaro coming off the pace to score by 6 1/2 lengths in ’06, second best in history.

During the previous seven years, less than a length separated the top two finishers. The closest races were in ’99, Charismatic, by a neck; ’97, Silver Charm, a head; and ’96, Grindstone, a nose.

Four Derby champs share the record of the largest winning margin of eight lengths: Old Rosebud, ’14; Johnstown, ’39; Whirlaway, ‘’41; and Assault, ‘’46. Whirlaway and Assault won the Triple Crown.

So far, Big Brown’s speed figures this year are higher than any other contender. And lightly raced horses have done well during the past decade at Louisville.

But the colt is trying to buck the odds concerning experience. He had only one race as a 2-year-old and that was on the grass. And he’s among several sophomores attempting to become the first since Exterminator in ’18 to score with only four trips to the post.

Only time will tell.

Keep checking the Locker Room all through the Triple Crown season, as we will cover the trainers, horses and jockeys in each race. You can get your early Kentucky Derby Odds at Churchill Downs bets in now in the BetUS sportsbook in the Future / props section, under Horse Futures: 2008 Kentucky Derby Betting.