Posted on 8/21/2007 5:38:49 PM

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Green Bay Packers Provides a Rare Pre-Season Betting Opportunity

By D.S. Williamson

Make no mistake, betting on pre-season NFL games is probably not the wisest thing to do as a sports handicapper. An NFL pre-season game is different from almost any game you are going to see in the regular season. Traditional game-specific NFL betting trends such as head to head match-ups or how teams play on grass or artificial surfaces can be thrown out the window in a pre-season game. How a team does against the spread is almost meaningless as the line is usually a traditional minus 3 on the home team.

One in a while, though, a line arrives that appears almost too obvious. Because the NFL is the NFL, the tendency is for Vegas odds makers to create lines based on obvious facts, the least of which is injuries.

Injuries can certainly determine the winner of any football game whether it be a pre-season, regular season, or playoff game. However, in the pre-season injuries are never as meaningful as some might believe.

Take, as an example, Thursday’s game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Green Bay Packers. The NFL lines opened with Jacksonville, the visiting team, as a 3 point favorite over the home team Green Bay Packers. The reason is obvious. Green Bay has sustained numerous injuries to players on their first team and on Thursday they go against one of the best first team defenses in the NFL, the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Notice that I use the term first team. If this were the regular season, where first team defenses and offenses play the entire game, then there is no doubt that the line would probably read somewhere in the neighborhood of 5 to 7.5 points with the Jags as the favorite.

But, this isn’t the regular season. This is the pre-season and a team’s first team is usually never as important to the outcome of a game as a team’s second and third teams. In that respect, the 3 points the Jaguars are giving up to the Packers is almost a gift.

Aaron Rodgers, the Packer’s second-string quarterback, has shown flashes of brilliance in Green Bay’s first two pre-season games, both wins, and there is no reason to believe that Coach Mike McCarthy won’t trust the youngster on Thursday night after giving Brett Favre the ball for the first quarter. The Green Bay defenses - - first, second, third, and nickel - - were all spectacular last week and now they get to go up against a Jaguar offense that hasn’t come close to gelling.

Then, of course, there is a 50% chance of rain which should make Lambeau Field a slippery, sloppy place. The Jaguars can ill afford to let either one of their running backs, Fred Taylor, who has a history of injury, or Maurice Jones-Drew, coming off a spectacular rookie season, turn an ankle or strain a knee on a wet field. Coach Del Rio may not give either running back the ball that often on Thursday night. That leaves it up to the Jag quarterbacks to find their targets which could prove to be a tough assignment in the rain.

All of these factors leave sports handicappers with a rare pre-season NFL betting opportunity. NFL odds usually dictate that the home team is a 3 point favorite if all things are equal. Again, if this were a regular season game, then all things wouldn’t be equal. But, this is a pre-season game and the plus 3 betting line on the Packers at home in the rain is as close to a gift as a sports handicapper will ever receive in a pre-season game.

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