Posted on
12/6/2007 6:45:38 PM
Horse Betting Odds – Mystery of the Morning Line
By Brian Mulligan
The first thing a horse bettor usually obtains as he or she walks into the track or is about to make a bet via the internet is the program and the morning line in that program can be like the magical mystery tour of numbers that a sharp horse bettor can profit from if evaluated correctly.
One of the first questions is how is the morning line made? Well, after being a line maker for the Racing Form for over 20 years, there are some things that are built in concrete as far as the line is concerned.
Each odds that is assigned correlates directly to a number that, when added up, will equal 100 plus what the takeout percentage is.
In a full field, I would usually balance, make sure the numbers added up correctly, to between 120 and 125 in a full field.
Obviously, if those numbers are skewed by a bad choice of a favorite, or by laying a horse too low or too high, then the entire line will be faulty.
When evaluating a morning line, clever horse bettors have to know the program line maker, make a judgment on his ability and move on from there.
The job of a line maker is to predict how the public will bet. It is not to push a runner that a line maker likes but to project what the actual horse betting odds will be at crunch time.
This is a task easier said than done especially in a field filled with first-time starters, or in a well-constructed race where the contention runs deep.
Cagey bettors can make the horse racing game easier on themselves by making their own line and comparing it to the program and how the final odds look in reality.
The first thing I would do when making a line, and on some days I would make the line on between 5 and 17 different tracks, is to eliminate in my mind runners that would take limited action.
I would circle them and know that they would only be assigned 20-1 or 30-1 status when my line was completed.
Next, I would glance and see how the race may set up speed wise and try to project a race shape.
After that, I would isolate a favorite and in graded order, go through the race top to the bottom.
After assigning a grade to each horse, I would go back to the horse I tabbed as favorite and assign the starting number that horse will be to kick off the betting action.
A heavy chalk for me in a full field would be something like 8-5, which translates to 38 points when you get ready to balance the race.
If you had a 8-horse field, the others in the race in graded order may be assigned odds of 3-1, 5-1, 6-1, 8-1, 10-1, 12-1, 30-1 with corresponding values of 25, 16, 14, 11, 9, 7, and for this case 2 or in some cases 3 for a total of 123, which balances perfectly.
The entire betting table can be found in the American Racing Manual.
Sharp horse bettors can make their own line and see how it stands up to the final odds after the race is run. This exercise will sharpen the horse bettor’s eye to contention, non-contention, pace situations and finally results.
Try it and see how you do.
The next step for the clever horse bettor is how to evaluate a morning line in the program and that subject will be taken up at another time before the year is out.
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