Posted on 4/12/2008 12:31:19 PM

Horse Wagering - Padding Your Bankroll

By Michael Dempsey

National horse racing handicapper Michael Dempsey will attempt to pad his bankroll and yours with his daily column. He will feature at least one Pick 3 or Pick 4 play from a major track along with coverage of major stakes races, longshots, and he will keep you up to date on what is happening on the circuits he covers.

Saturday’s Kentucky Derby preps are crucial to a number of connections, but for different reasons.

Pyro is likely to go off as the favorite in the $750,000 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1), but is assured a berth in the Kentucky Derby regardless of the results.

With a oversubscribed field likely on the first Saturday of May, the determining factor to earn a starting spot in the Derby is graded stakes earnings.

Horses at risk include Cool Coal Man. The Nick Zito trainee is one of the main contenders in the Blue Grass, but the colt currently has $212,767 in graded stakes earnings, which ranks him 19th.

If several horses lower on the list run well in the Blue Grass, $1 million Arkansas Derby (G2), or perhaps even the $150,000 Holy Bull Stakes (G3), Cool Coal Man could be on the outside looking in.

Here is a quick look at the three major Derby preps on Saturday:

Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland:

Pyro is sitting at even money and will be making his first start over polytrack. While he was a very impressive winner in his last two starts in the Risen Star (G3) and Louisiana Derby (G2), the speed figures he earned in those two victories came up on the light side. He could prove tough to beat in this spot but at such a short price we’ll try to beat him with Cool Coal Man, who has more at stake in the race.

The Zito runner may need some graded stakes earnings to get into the Derby. He has won back-to-back races, last out taking the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2). That race produced Adriano, who won the Lane’s End (G2) in his next outing. Four others exited the Fountain of Youth to finish in the money in stakes in their next starts. It will also be the colt’s first start on polytrack.

Cowboy Cal is an intriguing runner at 15/1 on the morning line. Trainer Todd Pletcher nominated 34 runners to the Triple Crown and is running out of options to get one of them to the Derby. All three of his wins have come on turf. Horses that run well on turf generally seem to do okay on poly. The colt figures to be a early pace threat and speed does not usually hold up well over this synthetic surface. However, the price is likely going to be attractive and there is no doubt this colt has talent.

Selections:

1-Cool Coal Man

2-Cowbopy Cal

3-Pyro

Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park:

This race is a great betting race with a full field of 14. Blackberry Road has only one career win in nine career starts but has been facing tough company, checking in fifth and fourth in his last two outings behind Pyro at Fair Grounds. This colt just seems like an underachiever and might be ready for a breakthrough effort here.

Gayego was up on the pace, took over the lead briefly and could not go with Georgie Boy in the late going, checking in second in the San Felipe Stakes (G2). The third place finisher in that race was Bob Black Jack, who came back to run a good second in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) in his next outing. This colt has only been on polytrack in his career and his pedigree is on the light side to get nine furlongs. However, he sure has plenty of talent, is making just his fifth career start, and still has some upside potential.

Selections:

1-Blackberry Road

2-Gayego

3-My Pal Charlie

Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park:

This is the weakest of the three Derby preps, and with $90,000 in graded earnings going to the winner, that amount is still likely not enough to get into the Derby if the field is oversubscribed.

Hey Byrn is the lone runner in this field that has competed in graded stakes company, finishing fourth last out in the Florida Derby (G1) behind Big Brown. The Edward Plesa trainee is likely going off at a short price but looks tough to bear in this spot.

Web Gem made a mild late rally to finish third last out against allowance company. He ran second behind War Pass two back at Gulfstream going a one-turn mile. The colt has enough pedigree to handle the extra ground.

Selections:

1-Hey Byrn

2-Web Gem

3-Famous Patriot

Good luck padding your bankroll today!

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