posted October 10, 2007 at 18:18 in Triple Crown Betting Trends

One would think that given a mile and a half and about 2 and half minutes, one could crown a champion, but that seldom happens concretely in the Breeders’ Cup Turf and bettors not only have to have the correct handicapping angles going for them but a little luck too. Let’s glimpse into the past and see what astute bettors can learn and adapt to for the running at Monmouth Park this year.

First, look for another close finish this year. In the first 9 Turf runnings, the largest margin of victory was a half-length 4 times, a head, a nose and three neck decisions to boot.

Considering that grass racing, and grass marathons, are the specialty of those across the pond, it’s no surprise that the majority of Turf winners are foreigners including the highest price winner, the inaugural hero Lashkari, who blew up the Hollywood Park tote at $108.80.

If you want to swallow chalk, know that 8 favorites have won the Turf but there have also been 10 that have paid 8-1 or better.

One thing that may prove a bit different and is something that bettors have to be aware of is the tight turns on the Monmouth Park turf course. This is not the premier kind of course that will favor the Euros so bettors may be wise to give the Americans a bit of an extra look.

There’s a saying that time is only important if you are in jail or waiting for a bus, in a race like this it is probably true, but for the record Fraise posted the fastest Turf in 1992 in 2:24.08. As far as style, you can be placed anywhere in this race and win if you are good enough. There is plenty of time to even overcome a mishap and the riders from overseas are specialists at marathon distances. Seven of the last 8 winners were handled by overseas pilots.

Horse bettors should remember about pace in this race. Two Churchill Turf winners went virtually all the way on the front end and 42-1 Miss Alleged was fairly close up in 1991 pulling her upset.

Last year, the Euros still got the money as Red Rocks came from third to last to pay a fat 10-1. They way to shoot for the moon in this race, bettors should think about this strategy in all the BC races, is to take a shot at a life changer in the superfecta.

Even with the 2nd choice in last year’s renewal completing the trifecta, the superfecta still came back over $32,000.

This year English Channel is the one to carry the top American hopes. He is fresh off a win in the Joe Hirsch Classic, he’s 3 for 5 with two seconds this season and he wants to beat ya.

After the Hirsch, his trainer Todd Pletcher had this to say. “This turned out to be the perfect BC Turf prep. He relaxed really well and only ran for an eighth of a mile.”

All systems go here.

The early Euro to be aware of is Dylan Thomas. Last year he won the Irish Derby but his form this season is even better. His most impressive wins included scores in the Irish Champion Stakes and 4 other Euros won that race and parlayed to BC glory.

More to come on this race as the event nears.

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