Posted on
10/19/2007 5:28:15 PM
Horse Racing Picks: Post Patterns
By Brian Mulligan
A post pattern in football is when a receiver runs 10-15 yards down field then breaks toward the middle at a 45% degree angle. Post refers to the general direction of the goal post but in horse racing sharp bettors that know about post patterns can pad their bankroll promptly.
Now is the time for cagey bettors to take a look at what has transpired over the years as far as post positions stats at Monmouth Park. With the Breeders’ Cup literally only days away, a little research could go a long way to making those winning plays on the Big Day.
Remember, you can have the best horse on his best day but because of a bad post position draw, that runner may not be able to show his top talent because of the projected trip he or she will encounter.
Go back a couple of years and one can see a winning pattern as far as post positions draws are concerned at Monmouth. Consider that during the 2004 and 2005 shore seasons, the inside two posts were by far the best going short on dirt, long on dirt or on the grass.
In 2004 17.5% of winners started from the rail in sprints, 17.8% of winners started from the 2 post in dirt routes and 18.2% winners came from post 2 in turf races.
Those were all the top winning slots.
The next year, the rail sprinting was second in winners at 15.3% while the rail routing on dirt lead the league at 17.1%. And in turf races in 2005, the rail was second in winners with 13.6% winners.
For the 2 years combined, if you were further out than post 8 short and long, dirt or turf, you were in deep trouble.
Runners starting from the outside post in 2004 were a combined 1 for 36 and in 2005 runners in that same category were only 2 for 31.
Sure, what happened in the past doesn’t mean that it will happen today, but sharp players have to be aware of history and consider what happened at the shore in the very last week of racing this season.
Only 4 winners the entire week came from the outside post. Two were chalk, one was the second choice and one was 4-1 so they all figured.
Post positions one and two accounted for 20 winners in the last week of racing which encompassed 47 races so they inside slot theory definitely holds water.
For the record, the Monmouth track is a mile oval on dirt, the turf course is seven furlongs, and the distance from the last turn to the finish is 990 feet.
Smart gamblers should pay strict attention to where the rail is on the turf course because it can vary as far as winning times. At a mile, when the start is 12 feet from the hedge, the track record is 1:32.50. Go out 12 more feet and the track record is 1:33.89 and go out another 12 to 36 feet and the track record is 1:34.41.
So one can easily see that the closer to the hedge the gate is, the faster the times will likely be on any given day. And it would make great sense that runners with positional speed will also be highly successful.
Looking at the racetrack just a week or so ago, it was highly evident that the main oval was packed down super hard and the grass course was cut short.
This would indicate that bettors should look for speed laden runners that draw cozy slots and have enough zip to be in the first flight at all times.
Sticking with pace pressers and stalking types could very well be the key for bettors to score big at the Breeders’ Cup this season.
One opposite note has to be made now and it is a home grown quote from the Monmouth Park announcer Larry Collmus in the Lowell Sun. Collmus: “Monmouth has a reputation for favoring inside speed however, we ran into late September last year and what we found out was that after Labor Day, the track seemed to change. The last part of the meet, horses were more successful coming from outside or off the pace.”
Another country heard from, and horse bettors have to get all the information they can get their hands on.
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