posted December 21, 2007 at 15:26 in Triple Crown Articles

It’s been said and it’s true that hindsight is 20-20 but cagey horse bettors know that this sport is all about history and that they have to learn from what happened in the past.

A good rule of thumb for horse bettors, novices and experts alike, is to look over the results of a racing card that you participated in and try to glean the spots where you made the right decisions, the wrong decisions, and how you can learn from those insights and mistakes.

One of the toughest races from all horse bettors to decipher is the maiden race. There is no from usually and clever bettors have to rely on pedigree, connections, workouts, drops, and race style to come up with a good strategy.

One lesson personally learned the hard way was the big dropper when a horse didn’t appear to be taking that big a drop.

The move from Maiden Special Weight to maiden claimer is the biggest drop in the sport and any horses making that move are eligible to run huge.

The problem with backing and horse betting on runners like this is that their form in MSW land is usually horrible and horse bettors have to project that runner to improve immensely to cash.

The good news about these kinds of droppers is that you can sometimes get great prices and here are a few insights to how that happens.

If there is a race where several runners are making the MSW to claiming land drop, then the odds are good somebody will be overlooked.

If the connections of some of those horses are prominent, those are the runners that will take the bulk of the action.

Clever bettors have to go into the entire repertoire sometimes to come out with a winner and it will include the trainer’s success with this kind of move, the workouts since the MSW debut, the ownership involved and how that owner may be tied to the horse and the pedigree factor.

The last day of November at Fair Grounds is the case in point. A full field lined up in a $50K maiden claiming and 6 horses where making the move from MSW, so right off the bat, the betting will be skewed.

Favoritism went to a runner that had already failed in similar company twice, but seemed consistent and to another horse from a high-profile barn that was shipping in from an inferior circuit.

When the smoke cleared, the runner that had failed for maiden tags before failed again as the chalk while the runner that came in from the inferior circuit almost went favored but was a distant second in her first start since July.

Cagey bettors could have sniffed out the winner. The filly, Indy’s Forum, is a homebred, meaning the owner bred the runner and had some leeway as to where he would race her from the get go.

The juvenile had trained increasingly better on the local strip, had a sharp work a week removed from the race and her sire won at 2.

The filly had shown legit speed in the debut when only a length off the lead at one point before tiring and finally and maybe most importantly, her trainer was only 13% throughout the year as far as wins were concerned but was 25% when this exact MSW to maiden claiming ploy was used.

When they added up the results, it read Indy’s Forum in front to the tune of $30.80, which keyed a superfecta of nearly $25,000.

When successful horse bettors are given the option of similar horses with similar credentials, like several in the race in question, they have to go for the gusto and the price.

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