posted March 7, 2008 at 19:45 in Triple Crown Betting Trends

National horse racing handicapper Michael Dempsey will attempt to pad his bankroll and yours with his daily column. He will feature at least one Pick 3 or Pick 4 play from a major track along with coverage of major stakes races, longshots, and he will keep you up to date on what is happening on the circuits he covers.

It is a huge day at Fair Grounds on Saturday, with a six-pack of stakes races including the Louisiana Derby (G2), New Orleans Handicap (G2), Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), and the Mervin H. Muniz Jr. Memorial Handicap (G2).

The Louisiana Derby is the marquee event on the card, featuring several of the top three year olds in the country, who will be attempting to stamp their ticket to the Kentucky Derby.

Of the top 25 three year olds rated by The Daily Facing Form’s Derby Watch, six of them will enter the gate at Fair Grounds.

Here is a break down of the field by post position with the morning line odds in parentheses:

#1 Stevel (15/1): This colt has failed at the first level allowance condition three times since breaking his maiden in his debut and looks like an outsider. However, trainer Nick Zito’s three year olds sure have been running well this spring and the colt did have some traffic troubles on the backstretch last out. Zito adds blinkers today for the first time and is 27% winners (with a +ROI) with the move. The colt will have to run a career best and then some to win here.

#2 My Pal Charlie (20/1): The Albert Stall trainee is one of there in the field with a victory over the surface. The colt is showing improvement in each start but appears over his head in this spot without a major improvement. He has a couple of sibs that were good runners in Bwana Charlie ($388K) and Bwana Bull ($526K).

#3 Pyro (7/5): The morning line favorite has done little wrong in his career, only two horses have finished in front of him, and one of those was two-year-old champion War Pass. The colt was hopelessly beaten last out in the Risen Star and somehow managed to pass the entire field and drew off like a superstar. His speed figure came up on the light side, but that was due to the slow early pace. The colt should see some early speed in front of him today making him very dangerous to repeat but the price is going to be on the light side.

#4 J Be K (12/1): This colt has looked super in his two career starts and faces stakes company for the first time here. The 12/1 ML may shrink, as this colt seems to be the “wise guy” horse coming into this race. Earned solid early and mid pace numbers in his last start and with the stretch out there is no doubt he will be on the lead. The colt has plenty of pedigree to handle the stretch out and Asmussen is 20% winners moving runners from sprint to route. Colt looks like a live longshot.

#5 Unbridled Vicar (20/1): This colt is one of three to exit the Risen Star and he was only beaten 3 ¼ lengths for the top spot. In his start two back he came up just a head shy of beating Alw-2L foes and the winner of that race was Denis of Cork, who won the Southwest Stakes (G3) in his next start on 2/18 at Oaklawn Park. Off his last two efforts, he is worth tossing in the mix here at what likely will be generous odds.

#6 Tale of Ekati (7/2): A couple of bullet works are on the morning tab for this colt, who is making his three-year-old debut here. He checked in fourth in the sloppy Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to finish off his two-year-old campaign. The highlight was a good-looking win in the Grade 2 Futurity at Belmont Park last fall going seven furlongs. This colt has plenty of upside; just not sure we are going to see him fully cranked today.

#7 Blackberry Road (10/1): This colt was a tough luck fifth in the Risen Star, as jockey Calvin Borel was unable to find a seam or running room in the stretch, or he likely would have run second. The switch to Robby Albarado looks like a positive to me as sometimes Borel is just too committed to getting the rail trip. This colt is bred to be a nice one, his half brother Vindication was a Grade 1 winner and earned $681K. Worth a look if we see close to the 10/1 ML.

#8 Yankee Bravo (4/1): This colt is the lone invader from the left coast. It’s tough to get a true read on just how god this guy might be. He made his debut going five furlongs on turf on the other side of the pond and his two starts in the U.S. have been on turf and then on Tapeta. He had a tough post last out in the Cal Derby and overcame a traffic filed trip to get up and win to stay undefeated. A tough call, with the 4/1 ML looking light.

#9 Majestic Warrior (9/2): Another promising three year old that makes his first start of the year. The colt won the G1 Hopeful Stakes in his first start against winners and then was the beaten chalk in the Grade 1 Champagne, a well-beaten sixth behind War Pass and Pyro. The colt was put on the shelf after his poor showing with a minor foot ailment. Trainer Bill Mott came bring them back running off the bench and the colt has been working steadily at Payson for his return. The colt is out of the mare Dream Supreme, who racked up over $1 million in earnings in her career.

Keep checking the Locker Room all through the Triple Crown season, as we will cover the trainers, horses and jockeys in each race. You can get your early Kentucky Derby Odds at Churchill Downs bets in now in the BetUS sportsbook in the Future / props section, under Horse Futures: 2008 Kentucky Derby Betting.