Posted on 10/9/2007 4:34:17 PM

Horse Racing: Re-cap – Future Bet Analysis

By D.S. Williamson

The final preps for the Breeders Cup World Thoroughbred Championships occurred over the past weekend and some startling things happened.

First, any horseplayer who plays futures and doesn’t take advantage of the BetUS line of + 1800 on Idiot Proof to win the Breeders Cup Sprint needs to get his head examined. The last time I checked the odds on Idiot Proof on the BetUS website were still at 18 to 1.

What? Idiot Proof just won one of those “win and your in” races, the Ancient Title, and he did it on the cushion track at Santa Anita. Now, the horse gets to go back to Monmouth Park, after a 20 day rest, where he owns the record for 6 furlongs. Yep, Idiot Proof owns the record. He doesn’t need the lead and he loves New Jersey. 18 to 1? That’s like Christmas coming early for horseplayers!

If future bettors don’t jump on Idiot Proof right now, they had better be all over Panty Raid. Her BetUS future wager line to win the Distaff is still + 2000 or 20 to 1. Are you kidding me? Panty Raid just won the Juddmonte Spinster Stakes at Keeneland on the Polytrack and some astute handicappers may feel that she isn’t as good on conventional dirt. My feeling is that she has won two Grade I races in her last four and you can’t train class like that. If Todd Pletcher feels like Panty Raid is good enough to win the Distaff, then I’m not arguing. At odds of 20 to 1, she’s definitely worth a shot!

There wasn’t a major prep for the Breeders Cup Classic this past weekend which means the field is pretty much set. I noticed the BetUS future odds on Curlin went from + 700 two weekends ago to + 400 this past weekend after his scintillating win over Lawyer Ron. I’m still not sold.

If you’re looking for a good future bet in the Classic then take a look at Student Council. He’s going off at BetUS odds of + 1800 or 18 to 1. The only thing Student Council has done in his past two races is win a Grade I and a Grade II. He can run close to the pace and he showed that he has a closing kick as evidenced by his Pacific Classic win over the Polytrack at Del Mar. He’s versatile, older than the hot-shot three year olds, and, truthfully, has run better this year than Lawyer Ron.

Lawyer Ron, by the way, is your classic speed figure horse. The two best figures of his life came at Saratoga. One of the worst races of his career came at Monmouth Park. Lawyer Ron will be horribly over-bet in the Breeders Cup Classic.

One final note is that Lava Man, the hero of Southern California, ran a terrible race on the grass on Sunday. It appeared that old Lava just wasn’t himself and it might be time to retire the old fella. He’s had a great career, racking up over 5 million dollars in earnings, and, if anything, deserves to go out a champion. But, it probably won’t happen. He’s a tired horse and, because he’s a gelding, won’t see much of the opposite sex in the future. So, he won’t leave as a champion on the track or in the breeding shed. Still, there are probably worse things for a horse to do than to become someone’s pet or serve as a lead pony for future champions.

Until next week, good luck!

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