Posted on
3/14/2008 7:24:25 PM
Horse Racing Picks - Padding Your Bankroll
By Michael Dempsey
National horse racing handicapper Michael Dempsey will attempt to pad his bankroll and yours with his daily column. He will feature at least one Pick 3 or Pick 4 play from a major track along with coverage of major stakes races, longshots, and he will keep you up to date on what is happening on the circuits he covers.
Three year olds with Derby aspirations take center stage on Saturday at three different locales. The $300,000 Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park is a final prep for the Arkansas Derby (G2). Among the recent winners of the Rebel include Curlin, Smarty Jones, and Lawyer Ron.
The $300,000 Tampa Bay Derby (G3), which was won by Street Sense last year, is the preferred path for War Pass, last year’s two-year-old champion. The Nick Zito trainee faces six foes that appear on paper to be overmatched.
The $200,000 San Felipe Stakes (G2) is a prep for the Santa Anita Derby (G1). A field of nine will go to the post with recent San Vicente Stakes (G2) winner Georgie Boy the likely favorite.
Here is a quick look at the three races:
Oaklawn Park Race 10 Rebel Stakes G2
#9 Z Fortune is the one to beat although the price is going to be on the light side. The Asmussen trainee ran a good second last out in the G3 Risen Star, beaten two lengths for the top spot by Pyro, who returned to win the G1 Louisiana Derby in his next start on March 8. The third place finisher also won next out, Visionaire victorious in the G3 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on March 8.
#4 Sacred Journey dead heated for third last out in the G3 Southwest, which was his first start around two turns and his first go against stakes company. This colt is very quick, and should open up a clear lead in the early going. The colt was a $325,000 purchase and has enough pedigree to handle a route of ground. He is by Unbridled’s Song out of a Storm Cat mare. If he gets loose on the lead, he could prove tough to catch here.
Tampa Bay Downs Race 10 Tampa Bay Derby G3
At one point last week, there were only two confirmed starters to take on #3 War Pass, last year’s champion two year old and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner. The racing office was able to scramble up a field of seven, but none of these look like they could give the champ much of a fight here and War Pass is listed at 1/2 on the morning line.
#3 War Pass was a very easy winner last in his three-year-old debut in the allowance ranks. That outing came off a four-month break and while he earned just a 97 Beyer, he could have run much faster. The Zito colt will be very tough to beat in this spot.
The most accomplished of his competition is #6 Big Truck and #7 Atoned. The New York bred #6 Big Truck is coming off a good effort in a runner up finish in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa behind Fierce Wind. His lone stakes win was against New York breds in the Bongard last September going seven furlongs.
#7 Atoned is making his three-year-old debut for trainer Todd Pletcher. His last start was a game second to Court Vision in the G2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct going nine furlongs. His lone stakes win came in the Continental Mile at Monmouth Park, a race taken off the turf.
Santa Anita Race 9 San Felipe Stakes G2
The major contenders in the San Felipe are #1 Gayego, #3 Bob Black Jack, and #4 Georgie Boy. All three are coming off good-looking stakes wins sprinting and are trying two turns for the first time in their career.
#1 Gayego won the San Pedro Stakes on Jan. 20 in his last start, which was his stakes debut. The runner up in that race was Soft Pleasure, who won a $59,000 stake at Bay Meadows in his next start before finishing seventh in the G3 Baldwin. A son of Gilded Time, getting much beyond today’s 1 1/16 miles is a question mark.
#3 Bob Black Jack went gate to wire to win the Sunshine Millions Dash over the lighting fast Cushion Track surface that was producing ridiculous times that day. He stopped the timer in 1:06 2/5. He earned a 109 Beyer in the effort.
#4 Georgie Boy may need a new jockey. Rafael Bejarano is listed to ride but was involved in a spill on Thursday and was carted off to the hospital. The gelding won the G2 San Vicente Stakes in his last start, which was off a five-month layoff. Of the three stretching out, he looks like the best candidate to handle the extra ground.
#8 Shediak is the wildcard in the field. The colt finished third in the Group 1 Pris Jean-Luc Lagardere at Longchamp in his last start going seven furlongs on turf. He lands with trainer Doug O’Neill, adds lasix, and tries a synthetic surface for the first time here.
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