Up to Triple Crown Betting Trends

posted October 5, 2007 at 16:21 in Triple Crown Betting Trends

National horse racing handicapper Michael Dempsey will attempt to pad his bankroll and yours with his daily column. He will feature at least one Pick 3 or Pick 4 play from a major track along with coverage of major stakes races, longshots, and will keep you up to date on what is happening on the circuits he covers. Don't miss Wednesday's report where Michael will keep you up to date with track bias reports for the major circuits.

Keeneland opens for a17-day fall meeting today.  There are eight graded stakes this weekend, dubbed FallStars Weekend.

I'm going to switch from playing a late Pick 3 to playing the late Pick 4 from either Keeneland or Belmont Park. Today we'll invest $54 attempting to take down the late Pick 4 at Keeneland.

Today's Featured Race of the Day

KEE Race 9 Alcibades S. G1 (5:15 et)
#12 A to the Craft   5/1
#4 Irish Smoke   2/1
#9 Grace Anatomy   6/1
#2 Dreaming of Liz   6/1

Analysis: #12 A to the Croft came with a wide move and finished well for second last out to the likely favorite in here in the G1 Spinaway going seven furlongs. She has not missed landing in the exacta in her three career starts and has enough pedigree to handle the stretch out to two turns for the first time here. McPeek barn is 19% winners moving runners from sprint to route.

#4 Irish Smoke looked super breaking her maiden at the Spa in her debut going six furlongs. The runner up in that race was Syrianna's Song, a next out grad and then ran sixth in the G2 Matron. The Biancone filly rolled over her foes last out wining the G1 Spinaway by 3 1/4 lengths, beating our top pick in that outing. Main question marks for her are the extra distance of ground with her sprint oriented pedigree and the likelihood she is going to be a short price in this spot.

#9 Grace Anatomy ran third in her debut behind winner More Happy, who won the G2 Adirondack in her next start. The filly graduated in her second start in a good looking effort and she looks headed in the right direction for O'Neill. She had a good breeze over the poly here on 9/29 and likely goes off at a decent price.

Wagering
WIN: #12 to win at 3/1 or better.
EX: 4,12 / 2,4,9,12
TRI: 4,12 / 2,4,9,12 / 2,3,4,9,11,12

Keeneland Late Pick 4
The Play: Starting in Race 7: 3,4,9 / 8,10 /  4,9,12 / 4,6,8  =$54

KEE Race 7 Alw $52,000N2L (4:15 et)
#3 Quasicobra, #9 Vicarian, #4 Steel Blue Victory

#3 Quasicobra came up short last out but was facing G3 company and finds a better spot here dropping back into the allowance ranks. The gelding was first to the wire at this condition three back but was DQ'd for interference. Ran well over the poly here back in the spring and in good hands with "The Snake Charmer", the leading trainer here at the past two meetings.

#9 Vicarian is better than he showed last out in sixth place finish at the Spa. Numbers earned two and three back are a good fit here and note three back that was a good second behind Grasshopper. That colt came back to finish second in the G1 Travers and G2 Super Derby.

KEE Race 8 Sycamore S. G3 (4:45 et)
#10 Crown Point, #8 Silver Whistle

#10 Crown Point draws a tough post and comes off a dull effort, but could bounce back here at a decent enough price. Two back he was fourth in the G1 Sword Dancer at today's 1 1/2 mile distance. The runner up in that race was English Channel, who returned to win the G1 Turf Classic on 9/30. Is 0 for 2 without landing in the money in two trips at the distance, but both of those came in G1 company.

#8 Silver Whistle has a win and a second in three trips at the distance. The second came in the G1 Sword Dancer last year. The stretch out should suit this guy and Mott/Kent have been a dangerous duo the past couple of months.

KEE Race 9 Alcibades S. G1 (5:15 et)
#12 A to the Craft, #4 Irish Smoke, #9 Grace Anatomy
(For analysis see above)

KEE Race 10 Alw $54,000N2X (5:45 et)
#6 Try to Remember, #4 Westward Miss, #8 St. Hildegard

#6 Try to Remember broke at the back of the pack and came up the inside with a good late run before flattening out late in sixth place finish in a $83K restricted stake at the Spa. The runner up in that race was Unspoken Word, who returned to win the $78K Wild Applause in her next outing on 9/19. She passed the Alw-1 condition two back at nine furlongs at Del Park. Connections add to her appeal. #4 Westward Miss ran out of gas in the stretch last out trying to get 1 1/2 miles and will appreciate the cut back to nine furlongs. Makes her third start of her current form cycle.

Live Longshots:
These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.

BEL R1: #8 Coach Kent   10/1
BEL R3: #5 My Boy JJ   12/1
BEL R4: #3 Mighty Thor   12/1
BEL R5: #5 She's the Cure   15/1
BEL R6: #4 G T Gaitor   8/1
BEL R6: #3 Sarah Sunshine   12/1
BEL R7: #3 Irving's Doers   12/1

KEE R1 #8 Mapmaker   8/1
KEE R2: #5 Chaffed Lips   12/1
KEE R4: #6 Humble Earl   8/1
KEE R5: #9 Ginger Bay   8/1
KEE R7: #4 Steel Blue Victory   15/1
KEE R8: #10 Crown Point   8/1
KEE R10: #7 Y Seven   15/1

Good luck padding your bankroll today!

Horse racing with BetUS Racebook Online Racebook. We've got up to date lines and odds on 85+ racetracks. Join BetUS today to get in on the action.