Posted on
3/12/2008 9:59:02 PM
Horse Racing Lines - Kentucky Derby Power Rankings
By DS Williamson
The Kentucky Derby is almost right around the corner. With each passing week the picture becomes clearer, the 3-year olds start to separate themselves and we as BetUS horse racing handicappers start to figure out just who might have the upper-hand come the first weekend of May.
Sometimes, it’s best to think of the upper-hand as belonging to specific trainers. If we look at it that way, there is no doubt that Nick Zito is going to be the trainer everybody talks about come May. He has two horses in the Top 5 on this list. Both of them are moving up quickly. In particular, Cool Coal Man is starting to really impress me. It’s not that he has done anything special since the Fountain of Youth Stakes it’s just that his form sort of resembles one of my favorite past Kentucky Derby contenders, Captain Bodgit. The Captain almost beat Silver Charm for the entire enchilada way back in 1997. Cool Coal Man has form eerily similar to the Captain’s.
Let’s get to it!
Kentucky Derby Power Rankings
1. Pyro - - BetUS odds + 300 - - There’s nothing not to like about this guy. He keeps winning and he keeps doing it easily. What’s very, very impressive about Pyro is that Shaun Bridgemohan, Pyro’s jock, doesn’t have to force anything. He just sits on top of him, waits for an opening, and Pyro does the rest. This horse has no fear. That’s an important trait for a horse to have in the Derby.
2. Colonel John - - BetUS odds + 700 - - I took another peek at this guy’s last win and what impressed me so much was how professional he was. This dude is out of Tiznow and even though his odds are low, this is the time of the year when we start looking for an actual winner of the Derby, not just a horse that might win. Maturity wise, he’s way ahead of probably every other horse on this list save for Cool Coal Man. That makes him a very good bet to win the Derby.
3. Cool Coal Man - - BetUS odds + 1200 - - Talk about professionalism. The thing we have to remember with Coal Man is that he comes out of the Zito barn. That makes him a contender right off the bat. The other thing we need to remember is that his style is conducive to a win in the Derby. Don’t worry. This guy can get the distance.
4. War Pass - - BetUS odds + 450 - - I’ve been chilly on War Pass so far this year, but, really, I can’t keep him out of the Top 5 any longer. He’s going to make the Derby because of his trainer and maybe, just maybe, he really is as good as everybody thinks.
5. Denis of Cork - - BetUS odds + 1500 - - I’m not ready to put him into Curlin’s league yet, but he sure looks a bit like that one, doesn’t he? I mean, he’s a late-bloomer who is undefeated and who can stalk or come from the clouds. He needs to get tested before I plop some serious money onto him, but he’s right there. I can’t wait for his next start!
6. Visionaire - - BetUS odds + 1600 - - Trained by Barbaro’s fella, Michael Matz, has a good jock, and closed like a freight-train on a muddy, sealed track at Aqueduct. This guy might be coming around at the right time. He’s definitely improving and Matz proved before that he knows how to get horses ready for the Derby.
7. Texas Wildcatter - -Odds N/A - BetUS doesn’t have odds on this guy, but I’m sure they will. This guy just showed in the Gotham this past weekend that he’s the real deal. Unlucky to lose to a fast closing Visionaire. Oh, yeah, he’s also trained by Todd Pletcher and comes out of Monarchos.
8. Barrier Reef - - BetUS odds + 3500 - - I’m still waiting for this guy to show up in a race. There hasn’t been a peep out of his trainer or owners for well over three weeks. He’s too good for them not to try and win the Derby with him. I’m going to keep him on this list until I hear something from somebody - - anybody - - about him.
9. Elysium Fields - - BetUS odds + 2000 - - Had a worse trip then Cool Coal Man in the Fountain of Youth, and for that, some will rank him higher. I watched that race again. The bottom line for me is that Cool Coal Man is the better horse. Elysium Fields has some catching up to do and even though Barclay Tagg won the Derby with Funny Cide, I’m not sure this one is as special as that one was. Funny Cide had heart. I don’t know if Elysium Fields has that quality in him.
10. Roman Emperor - - BetUS odds + 3500 - - I was in love with him up until his race this past weekend. He looked like a winner at the top of the stretch and then threw in the towel. Granted, he ran on a terribly muddy, sealed, horrible Aqueduct surface. But I would have liked to have seen him at least give it a shot at the top of the stretch. He looked like a quitter and that makes me think that maybe he just isn’t Derby material. Still, I’m going to take the wait and see approach on this guy. There are flashes of brilliance in his past performances.
Keep checking the Locker Room all through the Triple Crown season, as we will cover the trainers, horses and jockeys in each race. You can get your early Kentucky Derby Odds at Churchill Downs bets in now in the BetUS sportsbook in the Future / props section, under Horse Futures: 2008 Kentucky Derby Betting.