Posted on 4/11/2008 2:04:23 PM

Horse Racing - Grade II Arkansas Derby and Grade I Bluegrass Stakes

By D.S Williamson

The final round of Derby preps occur this Saturday as the Grade II Arkansas Derby is run at Oaklawn Park and the Grade I Bluegrass Stakes is run at Keeneland Racetrack.

Both races should help sports betting aficionados figure out exactly which horses belong in the gate come the first Saturday in May and which horses to lay our green on in the sportsbook. Colonel John, who won the Santa Anita Derby a week ago, and Big Brown who won the Florida Derby two weeks ago, have already punched their tickets. But there are plenty of other horses that are looking for something - - anything - - that will convince their owners that they belong in the Kentucky Derby.

Grade II Arkansas Derby

Oaklawn Park - - Hot Springs, AR

1 1/8th miles on dirt

The question on almost every handicapper’s mind is whether or not Gayego, from the West Coast, can handle dirt. If he can, then most horseplayers believe that he should win this race going away. I’m not one of those horseplayers. Don’t get me wrong, I think Gayego is a very talented colt. The problem with this race for Gayego is that the most talented colt in it is named King’s Silver Son. Out of Steve Asmussen’s barn, King’s Silver Son has all the makings of a fantastic racehorse. He’s out of Mizzen Mast and a Dynaformer mare. He took his time developing, not breaking his maiden until his sixth start, and then ran fantastic, off the shelf, in the Grade II Rebel Stakes. If he takes a step forward in this race, and since he’s trained by Steve Asmussen there’s no reason for him not to, King’s Silver Son could be a live long-shot come Derby Day. For second Gayego is the obvious play, but I sort of like the look of Liberty Bull for Tom Amoss. Out of superhorse Holy Bull, Liberty Bull has to win this race in order to make the Derby. Heck, most of the horses in it do. He won the Winstar Derby, but since that race provides no graded earnings, Liberty Bull needs to step it up in order to make it to the gate on Derby Day. For third, I’m going back to Asmussen with Z Fortune. Number two in Asmussen’s barn of Derby hopefuls, Z Fortune will probably go off the second choice in this race. He’s a hard-knocking allowance type who probably will never make that jump to true graded company. Still, anything Asmussen throws onto this track has to be considered.

1. King’s Silver Son

2. Liberty Bull

3. Z Fortune.

Grade I Bluegrass Stakes

Keeneland RaceCourse - - Lexington, KY

1 1/8th miles on polytrack

The obvious choice is Pyro. Pyro is an absolute monster of a horse, but this isn’t his goal. His goal is the first Saturday in May. Because of that Pyro is a very difficult horse to wager on in this spot. He’s never run on polytrack so there’s no telling if he’ll take to it or not. If he doesn’t, then jockey Shaun Bridgmohan won’t push him. There’s no reason to with the Derby just three weeks away. I prefer to bet on a horse that has to win in order to make the Derby. To me that horse is the Todd Pletcher trained Monba. Monba was absolutely horrible in the Fountain of Youth, but he comes out of Maria’s Mon and an Easy Goer mare. He also went off the favorite in the Fountain of Youth and was squeezed back at the start. So, there’s reason not to jump of his bandwagon just yet. Pletcher has two in here and Monba looks like the better one. Why not? For second, Pyro is the bet. Unless he unseats Bridgmohan at the start, Pyro is just too good to not finish in one of the top two spots. Bridgmohan won’t have to take the whip to him. For third Cool Coal Man is the play. Like Pyro, this horse is too good not to finish in the top three. Cool Coal Man has a great shot at winning the race, but the odds will probably be too low for a wager.

1. Monba

2. Pyro

3. Cool Coal Man

Keep checking the Locker Room all through the Triple Crown season, as we will cover the trainers, horses and jockeys in each race. You can get your early Kentucky Derby Odds at Churchill Downs bets in now in the BetUS sportsbook in the Future / props section, under Horse Futures: 2008 Kentucky Derby Betting.