Posted on
10/17/2007 4:49:57 PM
Breeders' Cup Betting: Juvenile Fillies, Another Chalk?
By Mike Dempsey
The Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies will bring together the most talented and promising two year old fillies for a 1 1/16 mile test over the main track at Monmouth Park on Saturday, October 27.
Despite the fact many of the fillies will be lightly raced and might have just one or two stakes races under their belts, handicappers have done a good job in recent years of picking out the winner.
The favorite has won the race in each of the last five years, and eight of the last eleven.
That is not to say we might not see a price. Hall of fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas has won this race five times and he pulled off one of the biggest upsets in Juvenile Fillies history when he won the 1999 running with Cash Run, who returned $67.00 for a $2 wager.
The only higher priced winner of the race was Caressing, who pulled off the stunner in 2000 at Churchill Downs, paying $96.00 for the win and topping a trifecta payoff of $18,355.80.
The winning profile for the race consists of a U.S. based runner, preferably bred in Kentucky and in a top notch barn, that can stalk or sit off the pace. While front runners have won the last two runnings, most of the Juvenile Fillies winners have come from off the pace.
With less than two weeks to go, here is a look at four contenders to keep an eye on that may make my final superfecta ticket:
Indian Blessing: The Bob Baffert trainee ran huge in her debut, breaking her maiden at Saratoga. She followed that up with a very impressive score in the Grade 1 Frizette at Belmont Park going a one turn mile.
She has not been tested in her two starts and had clear leads turning for home in both of her outings. The only knocks are the lack of a two turn race and the potential she is going to be a short price.
Bob Baffert won this race in 1993 with Silverbulletday.
Cry and Catch Me: This filly is also trained by Baffert, and she has done her running on the left coast. All three of her starts have come on synthetic surfaces. She was second in her debut at Hollywood Park over the cushion track, broke her maiden in her second career start at Del Mar, and was a game winner in her stakes debut, taking the G1 Oak Leaf by a nose.
She does not look as flashy as her stablemate and her figures are lower, but at least she does have a race around two turns under her belt.
More Happy: Baffert again. She broke her maiden over the poly at Del Mar and then shipped east to win the G2 Adirondack in gate to wire fashion in her first start against winners.
In her next start in the Grade 1 Spinaway, she dueled for the early lead, opened up a clear lead and ran out of gas, checking in fifth.
If Baffert does indeed start all three of his fillies, this gal is likely going to get overlooked at the windows.
A to the Croft: This filly has not won a race since she broke her maiden in her debut, but she was a solid second last out in the Grade 1 Alcibiades behind the highly regraded Country Star, a Bobby Frankel filly that will sit out Breeders' Cup Day according to her trainer.
A to the Craft is trained by Ken McPeek and likely will be ridden by Kent Desormeux. I would prefer to have my top choice in the race have a stakes win on her resume, but this filly looks better with each start and she appears to still have plenty of upside.
She may offer good value in the race.
Expect to see a large field in this year's race. Which will allow for generous payoffs in the exotics even if the favorite makes it six in a row.
The average exacta payoff with those five favorites is $54.60. So even if we end up settling for the favorite this year, the potential is still there to make a tidy profit in this race.
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