Posted on 2/27/2008 10:47:45 AM

Horse Racing Betting - Trainer Patterns

By Brian Mulligan

We each have our routines. Some may shower, then brush the teeth, some may have coffee and wake up and go through the process of getting ready for a day’s work and horse trainers have patterns too and after scrutiny, clever bettors can read winners into the patterns.

Take a recent day at Gulfstream when 2 first timers cashed and another debuter ran third. The thing that sticks out about this trio is that different tactics were used to get the horses ready to run big and that is where the horse bettor that goes the extra yard starts to unravel the puzzle.

The thing about analyzing trainer patterns is that the horse doesn’t have to win to learn something. If a trainer that seldom has his runners cranked to the gills to kick off the career suddenly has a horse that runs well, then that runner just may be more talented than another that was put through the severe motions to win at first asking.

Enter trainer George Weaver and his sophomore filly trainee Sweet Vendetta. The filly by Honour and Glory had a very modest pedigree and only cost 26 grand, yet she attracted Johnny Velazquez to kick off the career.

Her work pattern was sketchy, with over a month gap in published moves, but the fact that this rider who is 22% at the meeting would ride for a trainer that hits with only 3% of his first timers may speak volumes before the meet is over.

As for Vendetta, she was green, raced wide, picked up 4 lengths in the final 8th of a mile to run third at 7-1.

Obviously a bit talented, this one has every right to run huge with a bit more experience.

Brian Lynch, who trained in California and had a stellar reputation with young horses, recently saddled a ‘House Horse’ owned by Frank Stronach, and although the runner had not missed a beat in the morning works, was send off at 5-1 and got up in a decent Maiden Special Weight affair.

There are many ways to get a firsters set to fire. One is to train that runner super fast, put him through his drills like Bobby Knight, and the other is to let the runner leave on his own accord, keep him training steadily, and have him ready to peak off a solid foundation.

In this case, Lynch used the 2nd option, putting slow steady moves into Lion Lord, who is bred for speed on both sides of the pedigree.

Horse bettors have to dig deeper to find runners that work slowly and run fast, but if they find a trainer like Lynch who can pull off the feat, 5-1 will only get better.

Cat Man Do, Wayne Catalano, usually deals more with the claiming variety rather than the youngsters, but he had Motorcycle Tom geared up like a Harley first crack.

By Delaware Township, who is about 12% with firsters and out of a dam who won twice at 2, Tom ran away and hid from $25,000 maiden claimers like a runner with a bit of a future.

The key to the winning work pattern is the perfect time of 6 to 8 days between works. When a horse bettor sees a consistent trend like this, no matter how slow the works may seen, this can be a better sign that fast works, which may be used to confuse other trainers.

Tom has a kin that banked 6 figures, 2 of 3 of his siblings won, and the feeling is he’ll adapt to any distance.

Horse bettors that examine work patterns looking at the overall picture will succeed in this sport in the long run.

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