Posted on
10/16/2007 3:59:50 PM
Horse Racing Picks: Re-cap and Look Forward
By D.S. Williamson
The biggest news that came out of the races over the weekend is how Dreaming of Anna, who looked like a sure winner at the top of the stretch in the QEII, got beat by Bit O’ Whimsey. It was Bit O’ Whimsey’s biggest win by far and she did look incredibly impressive by rolling right by Dreaming of Anna.
But, it’s not a good idea to read too much into her win. After all, Bit O’ Whimsey, like Dreaming of Anna, may show up in the Breeder’s Cup Filly & Mare Turf. If she does, there is little chance she will be able to run down Wait A While or Nashoba’s Key. Those two mares are as classy as any two mares likely to run in the race and Bit O’ Whimsey, although impressive in the first Grade I win of her career, will find the going much tougher in the Breeder’s Cup.
That, of course, is what late October is all about. There wasn’t a single horse this past weekend that made a good enough impression to be considered a true contender for the Breeder’s Cup on Oct 26 – 27. Because of that, I’m going to go ahead and give you my top three horses in the four most popular Breeders Cup Races: the Distaff, the Sprint, the Juvenile, and the Classic.
Next week, I will publish wagering strategies along with the horses that I plan on wagering on myself.
Distaff
Top three horses: Unbridled Belle, Hystiricallady, Panty Raid
Unbridled Belle is the absolute class of this field. Not only that, but she’s picking at the right time. She’s all ready won a Grade II and a Grade I in her last three races and is trained by the ever affluent Todd Pletcher.
Hystericallady will absolutely love the dirt surface at Monnmouth Park. Whenever a true front-runner goes artificial surface to conventional dirt, horse bettors had better pay attention. This filly is for real. She could definitely wire the Distaff field.
Panty Raid is all class. The winner of the Grade I American Oaks just proved herself over the cushion track at Santa Anita. She is difficult to beat because she can stalk, take the lead, or come from the clouds.
Juvenile
Top three horses: War Pass, Kodiak Kowboy, Pyro
War Pass is the class of the two year old division. Hands down. He’s the only horse out of the top ten who has shown improvement in all three of his races. That makes him a dynamite single on all Pick-3 and Daily Double bets come
Breeders Cup Day. He will take the lead at Monmouth and never look back.
Kodiak Kowboy has the ability to stay with War Pass, but he doesn’t have the requisite seasoning to beat War Pass. He has an excellent chance of finishing second - - or he might finish off the board if he takes War Pass on too early in the race.
Pyro comes from the Asmussen barn and that’s enough for me. He’s also a 3-digit Beyer figure horse and there aren’t that many in this field. Can improve.
Sprint
Top three horses: Fabulous Strike, Smokey Stover, Benny the Bull
Notice that I’ve left out Midnight Lute who is ranked number one on almost everybody else’s list. Midnight Lute made his name getting a 124 Beyer figure in his last race at Saratoga. I’m not sure if Lute can repeat that. Also, the Monmouth strip is absolutely speed-favoring which means the following three horses have a better chance at grabbing the prize than Lute.
Fabulous Strike is a monster. Trained by Todd Beattie, this horse just absolutely freaked at Belmont in his last. Nobody can get a quarter of a mile faster than this guy and once he gets the lead, he just seems to keep going. He will be tough to deny.
Smokey Stover can rate some but the problem with him is that he was so good early and now he has to try and regain some of that form that he showed earlier in the year. He’s a classic Greg Gilchrist speedster in the sense that he isn’t much to look at and he’s not bred to be a champion. But, he’s got heart and sometimes that’s enough in the Sprint.
Benny the Bull has gotten faster and faster and faster each time he’s gone to the track. He too has a chance in the sprint because he will be close to the pace. A good play if you get odds.
Classic
Top Three Horses: Lawyer Ron, Curlin, Hard Spun
Lawyer Ron came back to earth in his race in the Jockey Gold Cup when he lost to Curlin. No worry, the Lawyer is a much better horse than almost every other horse in his division. That means he should absolutely love going to Monmouth Park and using some of that speed he’s got. Even though he ran badly the last time he was at Monmouth, you can’t hold it against him. He’s a different horse now. He has the best chance of running down Hard Spun in the Classic.
Curlin could bounce off his terrific performance in the Jockey Gold Cup. He’s a terrific horse but his style just isn’t suited towards running on the Monmouth dirt. Once he hits the top of the stretch he’ll feel like he’s running quicksand. The reason I can’t recommend Curlin at low odds is the same reason I can’t recommend Street Sense. Closers at Monmouth just don’t do well.
Hard Spun finished second to Any Given Saturday in the Haskell Invitational earlier this summer. Of course, Hard Spun did all of the running by keeping close to Cable Boy early. That means that Spun has the requisite speed to wire this field in the Breeders Cup Classic. There is no other true speed horse in the Classic. If Spun gets away with anything approaching 47 and change for the first half mile, just start walking to the cashier before the race even ends.
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