Posted on 10/8/2007 6:32:37 PM

Horse Racing Betting - Inside Information on Monmouth's Turf

By Greg Melikov

Turf strips, just like dirt surfaces, often play differently at racetracks no matter the location. However, I've found that routes and sprints have one thing in common - most of the time wire-to-wire winners are much fewer.

Since four of the 11 Breeders' Cup races are on the grass at Monmouth Park during the 24th renewal Oct. 26-27, I decided to check out eight tracks to see if my observations held up over the years.

Bingo! Routers at seven tracks did extremely better coming off the pace than those trying to win on the front end. Only Philadelphia Park bucked the trend -- 40 percent of the winners in 20 races led at every call.

No other track came close. Stalkers or closers did well at all three tracks with 2007 meetings that began five months or longer in late April or early May.

Only 14 percent of horses in 102 routes visited the winner's circle at Louisiana Downs. At Calder Race Course, 18 percent of the front-runners in 105 races scored. And 20 percent of the winners in 107 contests at Delaware Park triumphed.

The highest of the seven tracks was Hawthorne, one of the five with results from September to early October, where 22 percent of the winners in 18 routes went wire to wire.

The bottom line: Horses going a mile or long on the grass dominate pacesetters.

So how will Monmouth's turf course that was redone in '06 play? "A new drainage system and base with new sod was installed along with a new innovative five-furlong turf chute," said Paul Grimm, editor of the Oceanport Racing Report.

"Depending on who you talk to the grass does or doesn't drain any better, but the strip is seven furlongs and the turns are tight."

Grimm knows Monmouth well. "I have been through all the charts for 2007," he said. "In mile races, outside posts are at a big disadvantage. There were a couple of new course records at this meet (including 1 3/8 miles, the BC Filly and Mare Turf distance on Oct. 27), but most were broken last year as the new grass was faster than the old surface.

"Although when they run the Monmouth meet the heat can tend to bake the course. It gets very firm if we don't get rain, but will play more honest than the dirt as far as speed is concerned.

"The grass held up extremely well and stayed green all summer. They managed to use the entire course with the portable rail so it did not get abused and was actually in very good condition at the end of the meet although we did finish a few weeks earlier this year."

Grimm ought to know. "I have worked here when I was a college student so I have a pretty good feel for its condition."

During this year's meeting that ran from May 12 through Sept. 2, only 17 percent of winners in 108 turf routes led from start to finish. The best place to be: inside.

"English Channel and Better Talk Now have been successful over this course and the American contingent will probably have an advantage here especially if the turf is firm," he pointed out.

On July 7, English Channel won the Grade 1 United Nations at 1 3/8 miles on the grass by a length over Honey Ryder while Better Talk Now finished third another two lengths back in third.

Honey Ryder most likely will run in the BC Filly & Turf. Top contenders in the 1 1/2-mile BC Turf are English Channel, 2 for 2 at Monmouth, and Better Talk Now, 1-1-1 in 4 outings at the track.

Two other likely contenders hit the board on the Monmouth grass: Red Giant, winner by a nose in the one-mile Restoration Stakes on June 17, and 9-year-old The Tin Man, who ran second in a race several years back.

"Monmouth will use the one mile dirt course and the seven-eighths grass course for Breeders' Cup racing," he added. "I don't expect to see the five-furlong turf chute used on BC days, but maybe on Wednesday and Thursday (Oct. 24-25."

There were only 21 sprints staged on the grass during the regular meeting as 33 percent of the winners led all the way.

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