Posted on 3/17/2008 5:53:56 PM

Horse Racing Betting - Dissing the Chalk

By Brian Mulligan

Dissing is a slang term derived from disrespecting and is usually intended to insult a person or group and the sharpest horseplayers around generally will be dissing the chalk in the race more often than not.

Basically it comes down to numbers and at least with favorites you have a point of reference.

Year in and year out the favorite will account for about 33% of the winners of all races. There can be a break down of maiden races, allowance and stakes but when all the smoke clears, that is the number that has stood the test of time.

Second choices will win about a fifth of the time and third choices will reach the charm circle almost 15% of the time on the average.

This seems like a logical place to start on the journey of picking winners but unless one is almost puritanical in the selection process, he is doomed to fail.

If you back the favorite blindly, over the long run you will suffer a loss of about 20%. You will usually fare bettor backing the second or third choices but your win percentage will be lower.

What this means to the horse bettor is that he has to use the favorite as a friend, only dis that favorite in relation to straight bets, and to try to build solid exotic wagers around the favorite without going overboard.

You can use the chalk in the top spot; the second spot or even spread into the show spot if playing a trifecta and still get value with other sound handicapping.

Face it; horses go favored most of the time because they figure to run well.

Sure, finding false favorites is one great way to get an edge in this game but it is easier said than done.

If you can decipher a false favorite, this is the time when astute bettors jump into the pool with both hands.

If the favorite figures, you don’t have to pass the race or immediately look elsewhere but you can adjust and use the favorite in minor awards and bank on the fact your handicapping will select the proper long shot.

Let’s look at some recent race where astute horse bettors could have use the chalk and gotten paid.

True, it doesn’t happen every day, but it’s always nice to turn a 2-1 shot into a 25-1 shot. That’s what occurred when sharp horseplayers utilized the chalk on March 5 at GP with a 5th choice. In that third race, Mystery Prospect, who was 2nd in the very same league in the 2008 opener, completed the $25.60 buck exacta.

You just had to go 4 races later to find another overlay. The runner who was second, Heaven’s Awesome, was third in the very same level in one of his finale 2007 out, and at 45-1 to the winning chalk Big Brown produced a super payoff of $53.70 for a dollar.

In essence turning a 6-5 shot into a 50-1 shot.

Clever horse bettors have to use the chalk judiciously but not rely on it.

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