Posted on 4/15/2008 3:12:34 PM

Horse Race Wagering - Tightening the Screws

By Brian Mulligan

Whether you are a craftsman, online sports betting enthusiast, a handicapper or a struggling horse bettor we all know that the job is not done until you are finished tightening the screws and that is just what the trainers of the runners on the Triple Crown Trail will be doing in the next few weeks.

When trying to narrow down the contenders for this year’s classics, one could do worse that scrutinize the Courier-Journal Derby Data Track, which analyzes a number of factors that are important to eventual Kentucky Derby winners.

One thing that jumps off the page using this data is the relationship between earning or matching the highest Beyer in one of the final two Derby preps.

Since the Beyer figure became a common concept in 1992, only three Derby winners failed to earn or match that highest number.

Sea Hero was the first that did not succeed in that effort in 1993 and there may be a reason. He had not won a race all year and his 91 Beyers before the Derby were second best in his career to the 99 he posted as a juvenile winning the Champagne at Belmont.

Thunder Gulch also failed to match that Beyer in 1995 and there were also circumstances. He had posted his career best Beyer in the seasonal debut taking the Fountain of Youth with a 105 figure but his next 2 figures were 4 digits lower as he was coming off a fourth in the Blue Grass.

Last year Street Sense, also coming out of the Blue Grass, had a legit excuse for not matching his figure as he had posted a ridiculous 108 Beyer in his final juvenile race and the surface of Keeneland Blue Grass day was not conducive to a fast figure as the track played super slow.

Another factor that clever horse bettors can point to is the ability to finish strongly as reflected by the final quarter mile time in the last 9 furlong prep before the Derby.

The key number here is .25.20 or less and since 1990 15 Derby winners posted that kind of number in the final quarter mile.

The put the data in perspective to fully understand its potential consider those that did not accomplish that final quarter mile. They are Charismatic, Silver Charm and Grindstone.

Charismatic was a reformed claimer going into the Derby and could have been claimed only 5 races before the Derby.

Silver Charm had an excuse for running his final quarter mile slow because in the Santa Anita Derby he had been right with a crazy :45 and 1:09 pace and understandably had nothing left late.

Grindstone was a late runner that caught a slow surface in his final prep at Oaklawn in the Arkansas Derby.

Astute horse bettors can use both of these guidelines to narrow the field the first Saturday in May because they are both steeped in logic.

You have to come to this race almost perfect in order to win. And that means being on top of your game with the ability to get the demanding distance.

There are no absolutes in this sport, but by applying loose rules like this, horse bettors can focus on the real players in this year’s Derby.

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