Posted on 10/24/2007 5:38:47 PM

Breeders’ Cup Betting: Let it Reign

By Brian Mulligan

Okay, Breeders’ Cup Day at Monmouth Park is practically here, as a cagey bettor you have done all your homework, put in your due diligence, have those key plays locked and loaded, and then all that work goes out the window because the rains come and it’s back to square one.

After checking the pattern of weather in New Jersey over the last several years, it is less than a 20% chance of rain on BC Day, but just to get all your ducks in a row and get an edge on the masses, consider how smart bettors adapt to off surfaces.

On the most recent look at the Monmouth Park weather for Saturday, October 27 the forecast calls for some rain, so slap on the hat and gloves and let’s get to work.

Having the best horse is no guarantee that anyone will win a particular race and when you add off tracks to the equation, there are just a lot of ways to get beat.

Like all races, there are different ways to approach racing on off surfaces, which include slop, mud, wet/fast, good, and heavy going.

In the East, it’s a whole new ballgame.

At Monmouth this year early in the meeting there were a few days that started on a good main track surface and quickly the track was upgraded to fast. On those days, speed became a little less prominent as the card wore on.

The first muddy surface didn’t come at Monmouth until mid-June and the track that day played fair but leaned toward favoring closers in dirt routes.

Horse racing bettors have to pay attention to the forecast as to how much time the maintenance crew will have to prepare for a potential off-track day.

The first sealed track of the Monmouth meet last summer was on June 20 and the track played very conducive toward speed. Seven of the 9 races were won wire to wire and no winner came from further behind than a length and a half.

That speaks volumes and sharp bettors can take that trend to the bank if it rains on BC Day this year.

Just like with everything else, experience plays a key part in the equation. A well-versed gambler will be attuned to the pedigree profile of each entrant and therefore have a pretty good clue on what type of breeding will excel on today’s off surface.

Bettors, if possible, should consider a runner’s siblings and if those siblings did well on off surfaces before going bonkers at the betting windows.

Generally, a few sires that have positive positions on off tracks include Blushing Groom, Dixieland Band, Relaunch, Sky Classic, Flying Victor, Pleasant Colony and Two Punch.

Physical make up of the feet can also come into play. Small feet, those less likely to be stuck in the mud, are usually preferred on off surfaces while large round feet usually have a harder time of gliding over a muddy surface.

Getting to examine the runner is not easy, especially in this era of the simulcast where you are lucky to get a 3 second glimpse at a runner in a post parade rather than a full examination of his physical well being. But viewers can still be aware and try to make a judgment from the screen.

Muddy tracks, totally opposite from sealed surfaces, tend to be tiring, and therefore kind to late-runners and stone-cold closers.

Before making dye in the wool evaluations of a particular surface know that they are not all the same. A muddy strip at Laurel will not be the same as a muddy strip at Aqueduct or Churchill. And a sloppy track can differ from venue to venue depending on the way each region maintains its track.

Some horses are not brave either. When they get mud or slop kicked in their face, some just refuse to run.

Sharp bettors can now know in their hearts that they don’t have to fret or worry about winning on this BC Day if the clouds burst.

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