Posted on 10/26/2007 8:31:10 PM

Breeders Cup Betting: No Case Against This Lawyer

By Charles Jay

The 24th running of the Breeders Cup Classic takes place on Saturday, October 27. It is the crown jewel of a day of world championships at Monmouth Park that you can bet on at BetUS, paying a $5 million total purse. And as usual, the field for this race, which will be contested over a mile and a quarter, is loaded. The winner is this race will have the inside track on Horse of the Year when the Eclipse Award winners are named.

BREEDERS CUP CLASSIC

October 27 - Monmouth Park (Race #11)

Distance: 1-1/4 miles

Purse: $5 million

Lawyer Ron won the Woodward Stakes and the Whitney Handicap in very impressive fashion this summer, and as the 5/2 morning line favorite drew the rail for this race-of-all-races. The nature of casual horseplayers like me is that we are always going to be looking to beat the favorite with someone who brings a nice payoff. And so, can anyone beat Lawyer Ron?

I think so.

LAWYER RON is clearly the fastest horse in this race and the one to beat, with an average Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) of 117 over the last three races. But Lawyer Ron has not won a race at a mile and a quarter, finishing a close second to Curlin in this year's Jockey Club Gold Cup. In point of fact, there have been some other, rather poor results at this distance, including a 9th-place finish in last year's Breeders Cup Classic, in which he posted a BSF of 92, and 12th place in the '06 Kentucky Derby (BSF of 79).

Let's take a look at other horses to watch, who carry some decent prices. We will use the official Breeders Cup morning line, which may be different from what you find at BetUS as the race approaches:

STREET SENSE (3/1) -- This horse has won twice at a mile and a quarter, including the Travers Stakes on August 25 (BSF of 108). With six wins in 12 career starts, he's earned more than $4 million - tops in this field. But he'll be going off as one of the favorites. We want more "value."

ANY GIVEN SATURDAY (4/1) -- A lot of people are obviously giving this horse a great shot because of the huge performance it put forth in a 4.5-length win over Hard Spun and Curlin in the Grade I Haskell Invitational right here at Monmouth on August 5. Is this a "horse for the course"? Maybe. At this distance, Any Given Saturday briefly challenged but wound up a disappointing eighth in the Kentucky Derby this year, coming out of that race with a foot bruise. Trainer Todd Pletcher, one of the best of the business, fully expects a better result this time around.

OK, how about a couple of longer shots?

DIAMOND STRIPES (15/1) -- Originally I threw this horse out. He has no Grade I wins to date, and although I don't want to go through the history, I think it would be unusual for a horse like that to win the Classic (Volponi is the one I can think of off the top of my head). However, Diamond Stripes, ridden by Cornelio Velasquez, who piloted him to a win in the Grade 2 Meadowlands Cup three weeks ago, has finished in the money each and every time, and with seven straight Beyer Speed Figures of 103 or better, spread over five different tracks, this might be a longshot who shows up on the board somewhere. I'd work him into the exotics.

TIAGO (12/1) -- This horse has four lifetime wins (one by DQ), all of which were in California. Tiago won the Santa Anita Derby but then disappointed a month later in the Kentucky Derby (7th by ten lengths), although it must be said that he came out of the 15-chute in that one and while he passed some also-rans, he never really got going. Tiago rebounded to finish a respectable third in the Belmont Stakes at a mile and a half, then triumphed in the Swaps at Hollywood Park and the Goodwood Breeders Cup handicap back at Santa Anita. Aside from the Kentucky Derby debacle, Tiago has run well under Mike Smith, who once again gets the mount on Saturday. Tiago gets the outside post (#9), so he could get a clean trip. He also had the #9 post position out of 10 in the Santa Anita Derby.

If there is a horse in this field going off at 10/1 or better who has a shot to win it all, it is TIAGO, who has improved his speed figure in each of the last three races after finishing 7th at Churchill Downs.

Learn How to Handicap & Bet on the Breeders' Cup

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(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com never "spits the bit." He is a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)