Posted on
10/26/2007 1:27:34 AM
Horse Betting: Daily Bias
By Michael Dempsey
Well-versed horse racing bettors all know the impact that a speed or anti-speed bias can have on the outcome of races but smart gamblers are pro active and are able to adjust to a bias that is emerging before their very own eyes.
Players need to pay strict attention to the races early in the week when Monmouth Park opens a couple of days before the October 26 beginning of the Breeders’ Cup and even more attention to the early scenario the day of the 8 major BC races themselves.
Consider the 2006 Cup:
To take a note from the cinema, in a year’s past we had The Golden Palace, a sitcom with Betty White and The Golden Child, a goofy Eddie Murphy vehicle, but in last year’s Breeders’ Cup, we had what is known in the business as the ‘Golden Rail’.
The inside was clearly biased in the 2006 Cup. The first two races on the under card were won by front-runners that got to the inside and scooted. The Fillies was taken by front-running Dreaming of Anna, who controlled the pace and outcome and the winner of the Juvenile saved ground after breaking from the rail, the powered his way through on the inside.
Horse bettors that identified the trend, and had the courage to adjust and change strategy, were then rewarded because then it got crazy.
In the Sprint, a horse who figured to come from off the pace made the lead from the rail, posted a $33 shocker, and was followed home by a 58-1 shot who broke from post two.
Distaff heroine Round Pound made it the fourth straight dirt winner that broke from the rail and even the powers that be at Churchill Downs starting to see the writing on the wall.
After her win in the Distaff track management decided to wet down the main track for the Classic and even then front runner Brother Derek was right there after a mile after busting from the rail before finally settling for a fifth at 22-1.
At the end of a dramatic and emotional day in which budding star Pine Island had to be humanely destroyed after she broke down, the event was about the way the track played and how Invasor stole the Horse of the Year crown from Bernardini by blowing by him late. In posting the 116 winning Beyer figure, he cemented his crown along with older horse.
After personally looking at the Monmouth Park surface just weeks ago, and seeing how packed down the dirt was all ready, the projection is for the track to play very positively toward speed horses this year.
Bettors also have to be very careful before backing runners that draw outside posts. The shore track has traditionally been very kind to runners that can save ground and scoot along the rail and that trend will not likely change this year.
Those that like to shoot for the equine version of the lottery will have their shots and have to take them in the vertical exotics. Know that last year the superfecta in the Sprint paid over $113,000 for 2 bucks and in the very next race, it you could isolate the first four finishers in the Mile, you walked about with over $49,000 for a dollar bet.
The lucky 6 tickets in the Pick Six became instant millionaires with the $1.4 million payoff but that is a chore when dealing with horizontal action and it is more realistic for the daily bettor to take that opinion about a single race and try to parlay it into a life changer.
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