Up to Triple Crown Betting Trends

posted October 11, 2007 at 20:40 in Triple Crown Betting Trends

National horse racing handicapper Michael Dempsey will attempt to pad his bankroll and yours with his daily column. He will feature at least one Pick 3 or Pick 4 play from a major track along with coverage of major stakes races, longshots, and will keep you up to date on what is happening on the circuits he covers. Don't miss Wednesday's report where Michael will keep you up to date with track bias reports for the major circuits.

We had three out of four on our Late Pick 4 ticket at Keeneland on Wednesday, coming up short in the eight race.

Belmont Park is back in action today and between the two tracks I have 16 longshots listed. If we can get a handful of those to find their way in the money we should have a profitable day.

One of those longshots is in today's featured race of the day:

Today's Featured Race of the Day:

KEE Race 8 Jessamine S. (4:45 et)

#11 Girl Named Sam 20/1

#2 Lickety Lemon 3/1

#8 Excessive Heat 4/1

#9 Love Buzz 8/1

Analysis: #11 Girl Named Sam gets the call in a race that seems to be screaming out for a long shot to hit. The filly finished behind a couple of these in her first two starts, failed to fire on poly and put in a good looking effort breaking her maiden last out at Ky Downs going a mile. She looks to be heading in the right direction and another move forward could put her in the mix here at a generous price.

#2 Lickety Lemon did not fire her best last out in third place finish in the G3 Natalma in her stakes debut. She was beaten at 4/5 and regressed off the numbers she earned in her first two career starts, both wins. Ships in for one of Canada's top conditioners and she has plenty of pedigree to handle the extra ground.

Wagering

WIN: #11 to win at 8/1 or better.

EX: 2,11 / 2,8,9,11

TRI: 2,8,11 / 2,8,11 / 1,2,5,8,9,11

Keeneland Late Pick 4

The Play: Starting in Race 6: 3,6,10,12 / 5,7 / 2,11 / 2,3,4 = $48

 

KEE Race 6 Alw $54,000 (3:45 et)

#3 Grain of Truth, #6 Ladina, #10 Silence Dogood, #12 Spirited Away

#3 Grain of Truth chased the early pace from the rail and tired to finish sixth last out in her U.S. debut, which came off a six month layoff. The stretch out figures to suit and this gal was competitive in listed stakes on the other side of the pond and cracked the triple digit Racing Post figure once. In good hands with former Baffert assistant and look for this gal to move forward off her last outing and the 10/1 ML looks more than fair.

#6 Ladina raced evenly last out in third place finish behind Buy the Barrel, who returned to beat Alw-3 optional claimers in her next outing on 10/2.

KEE Race 7 OClm $100,000N$Y (4:15 et)

#7 Herecomeshollywood, #5 Island Warrior

#7 Herecomeshollywood ships in from NJ for Dutrow barn. Won the Mr. Prospector two back at Monmouth Park in a hard fought effort and regressed last out, checking in fifth after prompting the early pace. Looking for this colt to bounce back with a better effort here.

#5 Island Warrior is making his first start since March for Stewart barn that is 16% winners with horses coming back off a +90 day layoff. Solid efforts two and three back beating Alw-2 and Alw-3 foes in highly graded races. Had a good effort over the poly at Turfway last fall in runner up finish in the G3 Ky Cup Sprint.

KEE Race 8 Jessamine S. (4:45 et)

#11 Girl Named Sam, #2 Lickety Lemon

(For analysis see above)

KEE Race 9 Clm $30,000N2L (5:15 et)

#4 Rockdundo, #3 Chafee John, #2 Yankeesseptinfour

Analysis: #4 Rockdundo makes his first start since May when he was in the care of Pletcher and checked in seventh against Alw-1 foes in a highly graded race. A couple of quick works on the morning tab and in good hands with Reinstedler barn that is 17% winners with horses coming back off a +90 day layoff, finds a good spot here for his return.

#3 Chafee John put in a good effort two back at Turfway, turning for home with the lead before weakening to finish fourth against allowance company. Failed to fire last out at today's condition but if he can run back to his effort two back he could be in the mix here at a decent price.

Live Longshots:

These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.

BEL R1: #1 Factual Number 12/1

BEL R2: #8 True Rebel 8/1

BEL R2: #7 Lava Cat 15/1

BEL R4: #8 Tom and Dicks Girl 8/1

BEL R5: #8 La Dainian 8/1

BEL R6: #8 Rising Dream 10/1

BEL R7: #9 Storm N Lightning 12/1

BEL R8: #3 Enter Stage Left 8/1

KEE R1: #5 Flirty Red Bird 8/1

KEE R3: #4 Louis James 10/1

KEE R4: #7 Young Joe 12/1

KEE R5: #5 Halo Najib 8/1

KEE R6: #3 Grain of Truth 10/1

KEE R6: #6 Ladina 15/1

KEE R8: #11 Girl Named Sam 20/1

KEE R9: #3 Chafee John 15/1

Weekly Track Bias Report Update For September 30 – October 7

Belmont Park:

10/5/07: slight edge to stalkers/closers, 3-4 paths, 0 gate to wire

10/6/07: slight edge to runners on or near pace, 2-3 paths, 2 gate to wire

Calder:

10/6/07: edge to speed, 3 path in, 6 gate to wire

Keeneland:

10/5/07: slight edge to stalkers/closers, 3-6 paths, 1 gate to wire

10/6/07: slight edge to runners off rail, 3-5 paths best, 1 gate to wire

10/7/07: slight edge to stalkers/closers, 3-5 paths, 1 gate to wire

Mountaineer:

10/6/07: good edge to speed, 3 path in, 6 gate to wire

Good luck padding your bankroll today!

MikeD

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