Posted on 10/2/2007 5:37:10 PM

Horse Betting Weekend Recap

By D.S. Williamson

A lot of prep races for the Breeders Cup World Championships occurred over the weekend. Some horses stamped themselves as true contenders while other horses didn't seem to fare that well.

The biggest disappointment has to be Lawyer Ron. He was so brilliant over the summer at Saratoga that there was no question that he would destroy the field in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park on Sunday. He lost to a very good three-year old in Curlin, but the time is the issue. Both Curlin and Lawyer Ron stopped the clock at 2:01. That's pretty slow for a 1 ¼ mile race at Belmont Park, going one turn, and neither horse truly impressed.

Then again, there doesn't seem to be that much to go on for the Breeders Cup Classic. Every single contender has a huge flaw which is why finding a long-shot on Breeders Cup day will be of paramount interest to all horse bettors.

At this point both Curlin, at +600 on the BetUS future book line, as well at Lawyer Ron, at +350, on the BetUS future book line look like terrible underlays. Before this past Sunday Lawyer Ron looked like an overlay, but +350 just became bad odds as Lawyer Ron's two great races in Saratoga may have had as much to do with the Saratoga track as it did with Lawyer Ron.

Remember, Lawyer Ron already lost on the Monmouth Racetrack. Now, if his slow time was due to him maybe going off form, then expect him to run terrible in the Classic.

Curlin ran his guts out, but the Breeders Cup will still be only his ninth lifetime race. I just can't believe that Curlin is really that good. Maybe he is, but with the way that Monmouth usually plays, Curlin's style of making a long protracted run to the wire might not work.

The other two contenders are Hard Spun and Street Sense. Hard Spun won their showdown in the Kentucky Cup Classic but there should be two asterisks next to Hard Spun's win. First, there were only four starters in the race. Second, Calvin Borel didn't even raise the whip on Street Sense. Still, out of the top three-year olds in the country, Hard Spun just became the likeliest to win the Classic. Why? Because Hard Spun has the best style for Monmouth's upfront favoring surface. If Hard Spun can get an easy lead in the Classic, he can definitely hang on and win. Street Sense has no chance of coming from the clouds on that Monmouth track.

In other news, Unbridled Belle stamped herself as a truly legitimate contender for the Breeders Cup Distaff. She encountered trouble and still found a way to win the Grade I Beldame. That means Unbridled Belle has won two of her last three races. She is also very tractable which makes her ultra-tough in the Distaff.

English Channel won the Joel Hirsch Handicap, but he still has a tough road to climb before challenging the European invaders in the Breeders Cup Turf. Our American turf contingent this year, with the exception of our fillies and mares, just isn't as strong as the Europeans.

Which bring me to the best performance this past weekend. Sure it was a short field, but Nashoba's Key stayed undefeated by running down an ultra-tough Citronnade on the grass at Oak Tree at Santa Anita. Nashoba's Key supposedly will run in the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf. If her connections do decide to run her in the Distaff, then expect her to put on a show. She's the most solid filly I've seen since Azeri.

Until next week, good luck!

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