Up to Triple Crown Free Picks

posted August 30, 2007 at 18:00 in Triple Crown Free Picks

National horse racing handicapper Michael Dempsey will attempt to pad his bankroll and yours with his daily column. He will feature at least one Pick 3 or Pick 4 play from a major track along with coverage of major stakes races, longshots, and will keep you up to date on what is happening on the circuits he covers. Don't miss Wednesday's report where Michael will keep you up to date with track bias reports for the major circuits.

We started the week in the red on Wednesday, and that is never a good thing. Our $24 Pick 3 ticket was dead after the first leg and Wednesday’s featured race of the day saw my top pick Amansara check in second behind my third pick Criminologist in the Perfect Sting Stakes.

If you boxed my top three horseracing picks in the race, it produced a $38.80 exacta.

We have to change things up today, as the eighth race is a steeplechase. Our Pick 3 ticket starts in the fifth race and today’s feature is a $60,000 claimer on the grass, which goes off as the seventh race.

Today's Featured Race of the Day

SAR Race 7 Clm $60,000 (4:14 et)

#2 La Neige 3/1

#3 Touchdown Peyton 12/1

#9 Quick Comeback 9/2

#1 Brazenly Bold 4/1

Analysis: #2 La Neige exits a $75K stake at Del Park where the colt was up on the pace before weakening late to finish fourth, missing the runner up spot by just a nose and a neck. Our top pick is in for a tag here for the first time for a potent turf barn and picks up Ramon. He beat Alw-1 foes two back at Colonial over a decent field that produced a pair of next out winners including Run Squall, who won a $70K jump race at the Spa on 8/2.

#3 Touchdown Peyton earned a near career top last out beating Alw-1 optional claimers going two miles. Yeah, that was a two mile race on the main track last out. The colt broke his maiden on turf at Churchill and put in a decent effort three back in third place finish against Alw-1 company going nine furlongs on turf.

Wager: #2 to win at 5/2 or better. Exacta key of #2,#3 over #1,#2,#3,#9.

Saratoga Pick 3

The Play: Starting in R5: $1: 4,6,7 / 1,3,7,9 / 2,3 = $24

SAR Race 5 Md $50,000 (3:08 et)

#4 Farri H., #7 Flower Storm, #6 Ashiki

#4 Farri H. checked in fourth in her debut, sent off at 7/1 in a field of eight. She had to check after breaking inward at the start and had to steady again while in between horses on the far turn, coming up short in the stretch. The barn usually does have them fully cranked first time out and hits at a 26% clip with second timers. The filly is a half to four winners, top earner 10 for 36 Holy Decree ($128K).

#7 Flower Storm is a $30K Spa purchase making her debut for Motion barn - 10% winners overall with first time starters. The barn won with a pair of firsters here last year and is 0 for 2 this year with one second (Adriano, who won on Wednesday in second career start). She is by Stormy Atlantic (14% winners with debut runners) out of a Two Punch mare that was 1 for 10, her first foal to race. She has decent works on the morning tab at Del Park and may be overlooked on the tote in here.

SAR Race 6 Md Sp Wt (3:41 et)

#1 Indian Blessing, #7 Carolyn's Cat, #9 Life Is Sweet, #3 False Pretense

 

#1 Indian Blessing makes her debut for Baffert barn that is 2 for 2 with first timers here at the Spa this meeting. Overall, the barn is 19% winners with firsters. Filly is by Indian Charlie (17% winners with debut runners) out of a stakes winning mare who has dropped one other foal to race, full bro Shame On Charlie who is 0 for 6. She has no local drills since shipping in from Del Mar, but put in sharp and quick works on the poly on the left coast.

#7 Carolyn's Cat debuts for McLaughlin barn that is 16% winners (with a +ROI) with firsters. Barn is 0 for 5 so far this meeting with debut runners. $650K purchase is by Forestry (12% winners with debut runners) out of a Meadowlake mare who has dropped one other foal to race, 0 for 7 Princess Kathleen. She had a quick work out of the gate back at Belmont on 7/28 and just three average works since.

SAR Race 7 Clm $60,000 (4:14 et)

#2 La Neige, #3 Touchdown Peyton

(For analysis see above)

Live Longshots:

These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or, if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.

SAR R4: #4 Lunar Beach 8/1

SAR R6: #7 Carolyn’s Cat 12/1

SAR R6: #3 False Pretense 10/1

SAR R7: #3 Touchdown Peyton 12/1

SAR R9: #7 Laurens Go Go 8/1

SAR R9: #4 Heaven’s Star 10/1

Weekly Track Bias Report Update For August 21-27

Saratoga:

8/26/07: slight edge to speed, 3 path in, 3 gate to wire

Del Mar:

8/23/07: slight edge to stalkers/closers, 3-5 paths, 1 gate to wire

Calder:

8/24/07: edge to speed, 3 path in, 5 gate to wire

Good luck padding your bankroll today!

MikeD

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