posted November 28, 2007 at 16:12 in Triple Crown Articles
Horse Betting - Padding Your Bankroll
National horse racing handicapper Michael Dempsey will attempt to pad his bankroll and yours with his daily column. He will feature at least one Pick 3 or Pick 4 play from a major track along with coverage of major stakes races, longshots, and will keep you up to date on what is happening on the circuits he covers. Don't miss Wednesday's report where Michael will keep you up to date with track bias reports for the major circuits.
Churchill Downs closed on Saturday, and this week that leaves us with Aqueduct. Racing shifts to the inner, winterized racing surface starting today.
Speed and the inside generally rule on the inner surface, and horses that have shown an ability to handle the winter surface in past years should get an extra look.
Today's Featured Race of the Day:
AQU Race 7 Clm $25,000N3L (3:16 et)
#7 Too Risky 3/1
#10 Tahoe Warrior 5/1
#8 Itsacakewalk 6/1
#1 Ready Enough / #1a Brooker D 4/1
Analysis: #7 Too Risky was bumped coming out of the gate and made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot last out against $16K non winners of a race in six months. The winner of the race was Bailero, who came back to beat open $25K foes in his next start. Note the third place finisher was Sweetiewheatie, my top pick in today's fifth race. Was sixth two back in his first go for Levine in a highly graded $20K claimer that produced a pair of winners and a pair of runner up finishes.
#10 Tahoe Warrior was beaten double digit lengths in his last two starts since getting claimed by Rice. Did have to steady soon after the start last out. Picks up Chuckie and returns to dirt. Look for him to be more of a early pace player in this spot.
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 7,10 / 1,7,8,10
TRI: 7,10 / 1,7,8,10 / 1,6,7,8,9,10
Aqueduct Late Pick 3
Starting in Race 7: $1: 7,810 / 1,2 / 1,4,9,10 = $24
AQU Race 7 Clm $25,000N3L (3:16 et)
#7 Too Risky 3/1, #10 Tahoe Warrior 5/1, #8 Itsacakewalk 6/1
for analysis see above)
AQU Race 8 OClm $75,000N1X (3:44 et)
#2 La Presse / #2b Wild Hoots, #1 Smartgabrielle / #1a Rizzi's Twist
#2 La Presse tracked the early pace from the inside and was no match for the top pair in a third place finish in his second start since coming to the U.S. The winner of the race was Genuine Devotion, who came back to win the $100K Xtra Heat in her next start on 10/14. The runner up Jibboom came back to win the G2 raven Run in her next outing on 10/20 at Keeneland. Filly showed some ability finishing a close up third in a Group 3 and a close up fourth in a Group 1 before coming to the states. Entry mate #2b Wild Hoots picks up Ramon while cutting back to a sprint and switching back to dirt. Barn has strong numbers moving runners from route to sprint and from turf to dirt.
AQU Race 9 Alw $49,000N1X (4:12 et)
#10 Stately Pegasus, #1 Irving's Run / #1a Belz, #9 Bonus Size, #4 Stopbluffing
#10 Stately Pegasus did not threaten last out when drawing a tough post and a yielding turf course, finishing sixth. Was in the mix in his first couple of starts at today's Alw-1 condition with a second and a fourth. Ran third and fourth on the inner here at last year's meeting in the maiden ranks and this guy has a light pedigree for the grass. Might wake up with the surface switch and in good hands with Kimmel barn that is 15% winners moving runners from turf to dirt. Worth a look if we see close to the 10/1 ML.
#1 Irving's Run was not a threat last out in his first go against winners,. checking in fifth against maiden starter allowance foes. Stretches out to two turns here for Bush barn that is 18% winners moving runners from sprint to route and id often live in state bred races. Not much in the way of quality early speed in here and this guy figures to be a pace player on the stretch out.
Live Longshots:
These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.
AQU R2: #2 He's Charmed 8/1
AQU R3: #2 Again and Again 10/1
AQU R5: #3 Sweetiewheatie 10/1
AQU R5: #2 Stellianos 15/1
AQU R8: #7 Sneaky Girl 8/1
AQU R9: #10 Stately Pegasus 10/1
AQU R9: #9 Bonus Size 15/1
Track Bias Reports for Nov. 19-25:
11/21/07: track played fair, 2 gate to wire
11/22/07: slight edge to runners off rail, 3-5 paths, 1 gate to wire
11/23/07: track played fair, 2 gate to wire
11/24/07: track played fair, 3 gate to wire
11/25/07: track played fair, 1 gate to wire
11/19/07: track played fair, 3 gate to wire
11/22/07: track played fair, 1 gate to wire
11/23/07: slight edge to stalkers/closers, 3-5 paths, 1 gate to wire
11/24/07: edge to speed, 3 path in, 7 gate to wire
11/25/07: good edge to speed, 3 path in, 6 gate to wire
11/22/07: track played fair, 2 gate to wire
11/23/07: edge to speed, 3 path in, 5 gate to wire
11/24/07: track played fair, 2 gate to wire
11/25/07: slight edge to stalkers/closers, 3-5 paths, 0 gate to wire
11/19/07: slight edge to stalkers/closers, 3-5 paths, 1 gate to wire
11/20/07: track played fair, 2 gate to wire
11/23/07: edge to speed, 3 path in, 5 gate to wire
11/24/07: track played fair, 3 gate to wire
11/25/07: track played fair, 3 gate to wire
11/21/07: slight edge to runners off rail, 3-5 paths best, 3 gate to wire
11/22/07: track played fair, 2 gate to wire
11/23/07: slight edge to stalkers/closers, 4-5 paths, 0 gate to wire
11/24/07: slight edge to stalkers/closers, 4-5 paths, 1 gate to wire
11/25/07: track played fair, 1 gate to wire
Good luck padding your bankroll today!
MikeD
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