Posted on 9/18/2007 7:12:53 PM

Horse Betting – Is The Green Monkey Worth it

By Brian Mulligan

As humans and bettors, we tend to buy the hype more often than not but smart gamblers know that what a horse costs has absolutely nothing to do with his ability.

The venerable John Henry once was sold for $25,000 and Triple Crown champ Seattle Slew cost only $17,500 and those are only two classic examples.

On the other end of the spectrum consider some monumental non-achievers.

Ever Shifting cost over $5 million but lost his first two starts. Fusaichi Samurai cost $4.5 million, won his debut, but was only one for 4 and banked less than 25 grand.

Chekhov brought $3.3 million but lost 16 of 17 races. Barbados cost a cool $3 million even, but came back as a loser in 9 of 10 races.

Enter The Green Monkey, and pity those that had to pay triple green fees at the Barbados golf course the runner was named for, as the colt’s much anticipated debut was a flop.

The son of Forestry brought a world record $16 million at the 2-year-old in training sale at Calder but he was a major disappointment in his Belmont Stakes debut.

Like a lot of things that happen on the backstretch, gamblers have to have their ears to the ground and try to read in between the lines of connections when a high profile runner is mentioned and this is something that smart bettors always take into account.

The Green Monkey took a long time to debut and that should have been a red flag for all bettors but most could not resist taking a shot with him. It was always rumored that he had physical problems and the rumors were confirmed by his trainer, Todd Pletcher, and his quotes are a good example of what bettors should be looking for in the media with the Breeders’ Cup coming soon.

Connections always speak, but if smart bettors can project and read in between the sentences, there are gems to uncover.

Consider Pletcher’s words: “I think the most important change this year is the horse is physically very healthy…. At the end of the day, he’s ready to run, so we’ll get started and hope he runs well.”

Those that took the prohibitive 45 cents on the dollar in his bow should have been all over this quote. Words like ‘get started, and ‘hope he runs well’ do not exactly translate to a bucketful of confidence.

For the record, Monkey was hustled from the get go as his rider was getting after him every step of the way, but as the footnote says, he had no response when roused.

He was beaten by Roi Maudit, a Bill Mott student who has a bright future. The son of Elusive Quality is kin to near $500K grass monster Noisette.

Sure, the Monkey may live to fight another day and maybe he’ll go on to have a great career, but what bettors can learn from this fiasco is that money can’t buy you love, happiness or successful horses.

It is a combination of things that make a thoroughbred a star and lastly bettors have to follow reports of trainers and owners as the money days of the Breeders’ Cup near and go over those quotes leading up to the race with a fine-tooth comb.

Horse betting fans have to try to get an edge anyway you can.

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