Posted on 8/15/2007 7:00:27 PM

Horse Betting - All Good Things Come To An End

By Brian Mulligan

All good things end and for bettors it may be time to wager that the good times for Lava Man will end in Sunday’s Pacific Classic.

First off, he will be overbet as usual as he is a true people’s horse. Second, he didn’t scare anybody off in the draw for the field - as a ton of horses will try to knock him off his pedestal. Third, he did pass his synthetic debut on the Cushion Track winning the Hollywood Gold Cup but this Polytrack at Del Mar is an entire different animal.

Fourth, he did prevail last time but was life and death to reach the winner’s circle - you really don’t quite know how much that took out of him.

Fifth, and foremost, he will be zero value and if you take a swing and bet against him you will get paid.

There are plenty of runners that could pull off the upset, but like beating Tiger Woods, it’s always easier said than done.

Take a look at the A group that will line up against Da Man. We are talking about A. P. Xcellent, Albertus Maximus, Arson Squad and Awesome Gem.

Xcellent was out for exercise on the wrong surface 18 days ago but that race could set him up for the smasher. He has the speed to take it to the chalk from the sound of the bell.

Maximus is a nice horse, but he is a sophomore taking on older horses and though he is talented, he will have to run the race of his life.

Arson is a multiple Grade 2 winner but his Polytrack debut leaves much to be desired while Gem is improving and ran well on this new beach surface, but he will need the exact kind of trip to get there.

Big Booster will be a price and he’s interesting. He still has conditions left but was getting to the winner in the Gold Cup and will be flying.

Hello Sunday will try to say Hi to his trainer Bobby Frankel in the winner’s circle but the Group 3 winner gets the acid test here. He will have to improve in leaps and bounds off his local win to get his picture taken.

The other Frankel, Porfido, has yet to win in the states and will be a huge number. Molengao blinked when looking Lava Man in the eye in March but has the perfect style for this racetrack.

Salty Humor just lacks the killer instinct and this is a far cry from beating up on non-winners of 2 other than Golden Gate rivals.

Mike Mitchell will try to sail for the wire with Sun Boat and this guy can run. The reformed claimer has a devastating late kick and he’s proven on the Poly.

The other sophomores in the field, Tiago and Time Squared, are talented but will be going from the frying pan to the fire this weekend. Tiago validated his Belmont Stakes third with the Swaps win while Time Squared cost a million dollars but has only won two races - he had no apparent excuse in the recent Chicago loss.

Here is how the race will shake out. Lava Man, will the bulls eye in full view on his back, will be forwardly placed from the get go but he will be pushed every step of the way by A. P. Xcellent.

That, in effect, will take its toll at crunch time and Xcellent will also pay the price.

At the top of the lane that pair will be wilting from banging heads for a mile and then the wave of horses will appear at the top of the lane.

They will include Big Booster, Molengao and Sun Boat. Inside the 16th pole Molengao will engage the leading pair and quickly scoot away and be life and death to hold off Sun Boat. Rank outsider Time Squared completes the trifecta and the era of Lava Man will be just a memory.

With Lava Man out of the gimmick equation, those that bet right Sunday will be sipping margaritas for the rest of the meet for free.

Good luck.

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