Posted on 5/18/2007 8:01:20 PM

Handicapping the 2007 Preakness

By P. D. Mahalik

Every year, the handicapping gurus of thoroughbred horseracing gather in Las Vegas to conduct a seminar. There are no racetracks in Las Vegas, and neither will you find a thoroughbred track in the entire state of Nevada.

That does not stop the guru group from assembling in the desert. There is one session that suits me to a tee, and that is the seminar on how to make your betting year profitable using the races from The Triple Crown. To me, The Triple Crown has become an annuity, but I am especially focused on the Grade I Preakness Stakes. I had the trifecta in 2005 and 2006, and the 2006 Belmont Stakes trifecta.

The Preakness trifecta bet is a lot of fun and winning it is just falling down wonderful. The nice thing about the Preakness trifecta is that it is not the Kentucky Derby trifecta. It does not take a lot of cost analyzing to figure out that the Kentucky Derby trifecta costs a lot more. My approach to a race like that is: my horse, with all, with all. With the size of the Kentucky Derby fields, the cost of such a venture not only crosses my threshold of pain, but is cost prohibitive.

My approach to the Preakness trifecta goes like this: my two horses, with my two horses, with all. There were nine horses in the 2006 Preakness. Such a bet would cost $36.00. Of course, with the injury of Barbaro, my Preakness trifecta went down the toilet, but the twenty dollars across-the-board on Bernardini and the $430.00 return really took the sting out. I picked Bernardini to win because I knew I would get some value, almost 13/1, and he had a big number, and that is what we are looking for to set up this year’s Preakness trifecta.

 

That same year, I had the Belmont Stakes trifecta, by wheeling Jazil on top. Unlike Bernardini, Jazil actually ran in the Kentucky Derby. But I was drawn to Jazil, because the Belmont field was a lot smaller, the race was longer than the Kentucky Derby, and Jazil picked up 22 horses in his last three races. Most of those 22 horses came in the Kentucky Derby, but still, that is a big number. He finished among the top five or six in the Kentucky Derby, but passed on the Preakness for the longer Belmont Stakes.

The 22 horses passed in three races is the biggest number of its kind that I have ever seen. It is an easy number to compute and it could give you that big number alarm bell that you need to get that second horse set up in your Preakness trifecta. It is easy to compute. Compare the second call of a horse’s last race with the finish. Let’s say the horse was running fifth at the second call and finished third. Three subtracted from five is two. And so for his last race he got two closing points. Do that for each entrant using the last three races. It is a real eye opener.

In 2005, I had the Preakness trifecta and once again I felt certain that the Kentucky Derby winner, in this case Afleet Alex, would win the Preakness. The trick here, once again, is to find that second horse so that you can have two horses for first and second and then wheel the rest of the field for that third spot.

Part of this Preakness trifecta play is to find a horse that did not run in the Kentucky Derby, but brings along some big numbers. In this case, I chose Scrappy T ridden by Ramon Dominguez. You remember that Afleet Alex beat Scrappy T in the Preakness, after avoiding a fall when Scrappy T suddenly veered out. My horses finished one-two, and Giacomo finished third ‘with good energy.’ That trifecta paid a very nice $872.00.

The secret to my two Preakness trifecta scores was finding a horse that did not run in the Kentucky Derby that brought a big number along. There are two reasons not to use a horse that ran in the Kentucky Derby: the non-derby horse will get better odds, because there is a stigma associated with not competing in the Kentucky Derby and then coming to the Preakness; and two, the horse will be fresh with the trainer pointing his charge toward the Preakness, caring less about the Kentucky Derby.

Where does the big number come from? In my case, I use my final pace number from my Mahalik Matrix Report, but I am confident you can find that second horse using the best Beyer rating of those who did not run in the Kentucky Derby.

There you have it. Use a non-Derby starter with a big Beyer or big count for closing points. Use that horse with the Derby winner in the first two legs of the trifecta, and wheel all the others in the show spot. I cannot wait!

Keep checking the Locker Room all through the Triple Crown season, as we will cover the trainers, horses and jockeys in each race. You can get your early Preakness Stakes odds at Pimlico Racetrack place your bets in now in the BetUS sportsbook in the Future / props section, under Horse Futures: 2007 Preakness Stakes.

You can read P. D. Mahalik’s Post Parade every Wednesday through Sunday at VegasInsider.com/horses