Posted on 5/18/2007 7:59:43 PM

Handicapping Preakness Stakes Made Easy as 1-2-3

By Greg Melikov

The last time the top three Kentucky Derby finishers hit the board in the Preakness Stakes was 1997 when Silver Charm defeated Free House and Captain Bodgit.

Many Pimlico historians, according to Bloodhorse.com, are comparing Street Sense, Hard Spun and Curlin to that trio a decade ago that duplicated the trifecta two weeks earlier at Churchill Downs.

The 1-2-3 finishers are three of the four horses making the trip from Louisville to Baltimore. Remember this: all but two of the horses that ran in the past 20 years at Churchill Downs scored at Pimlico.

Two of the jockeys on this year’s top contenders have previously ridden in the Preakness. Mario Pino, aboard Derby runner-up Hard Spun, finished seventh on Escambia Bay in ’81 and 10th on Menacing Dennis in ’02.

Curlin’s rider, Robby Albarado, was on Straight Gin, ninth in ’02. His best finish in six attempts was second on Midway Road in ’03.

All the cards appear to be stacked against the half-dozen newcomers. But there may be a joker in the deck.

The horse I believe that has the best chance of hitting the board is King of the Roxy, one of the two horses for trainer Todd Pletcher that might accomplish what the five he sent out in the Derby couldn’t do.

The son of Littleexpectations has been working steadily since finishing second to Tiago in the Santa Anita Derby and skipping the Derby. On Saturday, he breezed six furlongs in 1:14 2/5 at Belmont Park and galloped out the mile in 1:41 2/5.

“He’s not a horse that necessarily touts himself in the morning, so I thought it was a very good work for him,” Pletcher told the Daily Racing Form. “He’s held his condition really well, almost to the point where that’s why I wanted to go six (furlongs) with him this morning – make sure I got a solid work into him.”

Surprisingly, John Velazquez will ride in his first Preakness, but he will be aboard Pletcher’s best finisher of five in the Derby – Circular Quay, sixth. Garrett Gomez will climb on King of the Roxy.

Trainer Larry Jones doesn’t plan on working Hard Spun before the $1 million Preakness, but says, “we’ll see how well he’s doing and play it by ear.

“It’s remarkable how well he came out of such a strenuous mile and a quarter race. He’s happy as a lark – almost too good to be true.”

The son of Smart Strike breezed a half-mile in 51 flat on Monday at Churchill Downs. “He looked nice, smooth and relaxed,” trainer Steve Asmussen said. “He galloped out real good (five furlongs in 1:05) loose and seemed to come back very easy.

“I was curious to see, with him never being beat before, how he would go back to the track. He was very patient, and that was the only thing I was really wanting to see – that he didn’t tighten up or get nervous, or be somebody that he hasn’t always been.”

The stakes record for the 1 3/16 miles is shared by a couple of Derby also-rans that rebounded to capture the Preakness in 1:53 2/5: Louis Quatorze, who quickly went to the front in ’96 and led at every call over a drying out track labeled fast, and Tank’s Prospect, who gained the lead after a mile 11 years earlier.

There should be plenty of speed with three horses likely to contest the lead: Hard Spun, training at Delaware Park; Flying First Class, the Derby Trial winner; and Xchanger, victorious in the Federico Tesio at Pimlico.

I suspect Hard Spun has the best chance of hitting the board, however, I believe King of the Roxy will finish ahead of him.

Curlin should make the trifecta after enduring a troubled trip at Churchill Downs, but still running third. In his previous three outings, the son of Smart Strike grabbed a comfortable lead in the stretch and cruised home an average 9 ½ lengths in front.

And the winner is: Street Sense. I like him for several reasons that include eight of the past 20 Derby winners repeating two weeks later.

Calvin Borel, riding in his first Preakness, will keep the son of Street Cry closer to the pace. Of his six races at a mile or beyond, he led in the stretch in three and was no further than three-quarters of a length back in the others.

Note: The complete field for this year's Preakness Stakes will be set on Wednesday, May 16.

Keep checking the Locker Room all through the Triple Crown season, as we will cover the trainers, horses and jockeys in each race. You can get your early Kentucky Derby at Pimlico Racetrack bets in now in the BetUS sportsbook in the Future / props section, under Horse Futures: 2007 Preakness Stakes.