Posted on
6/6/2007 6:13:25 PM
Handicapping Hints for the 139th Belmont Stakes
By Greg Melikov
The Battle of the 139th Belmont shapes up as a duel between Preakness Stakes winner Curlin and Kentucky Derby runner-up Hard Spun.
If Street Sense hadn’t bowed out and all three had hit the board again, it would have been the first time in Triple Crown history.
A decade ago, Silver Charm won the first two legs, while Free House and Captain Bodgit hit the board. In the Belmont Stakes, Silver Charm and Free House finished in the money, but Touch Gold won while Captain Bodgit didn’t run.
The term “Triple Crown” is credited to sportswriter Charles Hatton who wrote about the second Triple Crown champion, Gallant Fox, in 1930.
An total of 47 horses have captured two legs of the Triple Crown, including nine that didn’t run in one of the races. Burgoo King in ’32 and Bold Venture in ’36 were forced to skip the Belmont with bowed tendons that ended their careers.
Seven horses, including Man O‘War in ’20, didn’t race in the Kentucky Derby, but took the Preakness and Belmont.
Curlin, the likely post time favorite on Saturday, could become the 12th horse that lost at Churchill Downs, but won at Pimlico and Belmont.
Here’s how the field shapes up from bottom to top:
Digger and Time Squared: Both entered the race because Street Sense skipped it. Against the top echelon 3-year-olds, Digger finished ninth in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes at Turfway Park while Time Squared ran seventh in the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita and sixth in the Blue Grass at Keeneland. Both hope to avoid running last.
Imawildandcrazyguy: While he finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby, the son of Wild Event has only two wins in 12 outings. He isn’t bred to go long so he will fall short of finishing in the money.
Slew’s Tizzy: Despite being on a two-race winning streak, he is yet to beat first-tier runners, finishing seventh behind Circular Quay in the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds. A plus: John Velasquez climbs aboard for trainer Gregory Fox. A negative: The son of Tiznow hasn’t traveled farther than 1 1/16 miles. Running third would be an accomplishment.
Circular Quay and Rags to Riches: Trainer Todd Pletcher is trying to make up his mind on which horse to run. Circular Quay’s daddy Thunder Gulch captured the Belmont in ’95. He’s bred to go the 1 ½ miles, but disappointed finishing sixth in the Kentucky Derby and fifth in the Preakness Stakes.
Rags to Riches won all four starts this year, including three Grade 1 events. Her sire A. P. Indy took the Belmont in ’92.
Tiago: Lightly raced son of Pleasant Tap is bred to go long and probably will come from far like he did when winning the Santa Anita Derby. But he must be considerably closer than he was in the Kentucky Derby when he only made up two lengths in the stretch to finish 10 lengths behind in seventh. Third place makes sense.
Hard Spun: His pedigree is tops in the field, but Garrett Gomez must get him to rate. He’s the son of the Danzig, who sired ’86 Belmont winner Danzig Connection, while his dam sire is Turkoman. He’s the only horse with triple digit speed figures in the last three races.
Curlin: A clean trip with a field smaller than the first two legs of the Triple Crown, during which he encountered trouble, would produce a resounding victory. He will expode heading home. Rememder that the son of Smart Strike equalled the Preakness record of 1:53 2/5 for 1 3/16 miles and posted the highest speed figure in the field.
Keep checking the Locker Room all through the Triple Crown season, as we will cover the trainers, horses and jockeys in each race. You can get your early Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park bets in now in the BetUS sportsbook in the Future / props section, under Horse Futures: 2007 Belmont Stakes.