posted May 31, 2007 at 15:04 in Tennis Articles

If you rely on computers and data analysis to handicap men’s tennis, Gaston Gaudio is your blue screen of death.

The 2004 French Open champion has the tools to be one of the great clay-court players on the ATP Tour. Except for that thing between his ears. “I always playing against myself first and then to the other one,” Gaudio told reporters in his halting English before last year’s Open. “So I’m playing against two guys during the match... It’s like mentally I don’t know what is gonna happen in the next ten minutes.”

Gaudio’s inconsistency with his mental game has translated to frustrating results on the court over the past two years. He won five tournaments in 2005, all on clay, but hasn’t won an event since. Gaudio’s having trouble winning matches at all these days; his first-round victory at Roland Garros against Marc Gicquel, one of France’s more promising players, was just his sixth in 17 matches this year.

Still, a win is a win, and Gaudio showed plenty of mettle by coming back to win in five sets in front of a partisan crowd. That doesn’t appear to have swayed the betting public; Gaudio is a +350 underdog for Thursday’s second-round match against Lleyton Hewitt (-600), the former No. 1 player in the world.

 

This is an intriguing matchup. The two players have split their six career meetings, with Gaudio taking three of four matches on clay and Hewitt the other two on the hardcourt. The most recent match, however, was in 2004, when Gaudio was still in the ATP’s Top 10. He was all the way down to No. 72 heading into Roland Garros.

Hewitt’s star isn’t ascending, either. He has just one tournament victory in each of the past three seasons to slip to No. 16 in the ATP rankings. And clay is easily Hewitt’s least favorite surface. He has just one career win on dirt, at Delray Beach way back in 1999, and he’s never advanced beyond the quarterfinals at the French Open.

The clash of styles in this matchup easily favors Gaudio. His Aussie opponent is a tremendous baseline defender, which works much better on harder surfaces, and Gaudio is one of the premier shotmakers in tennis when he’s on his game. Motivation shouldn’t be a problem on Thursday; Hewitt is one of the most hated athletes in Argentina, thanks to a nasty Davis Cup quarterfinal between the two nations in 2005.

It’s not the safest bet in the world, but in this match between two flaky personalities, at least Gaudio has some value. For a change.

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