Posted on
12/10/2007 1:19:02 PM
Bet On NFL - New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons
By Robby Maddux
NFL betting always takes center stage on Monday nights, and even when it's a matchup like this week's New Orleans Saints (-6) - Atlanta Falcons (+6) game, there's still money to be made.
When New Orleans and Atlanta were scheduled for a late-season Monday night game earlier in the year it seemed like an attractive matchup for bettors, but the Michael Vick scandal and a struggling Saints team has made this contest less then stellar, to say the least. However, lurking below is your important information, key trends and winning selection turning this ''work of art'' into a masterpiece.
Under center for the 3-9 SU (straight up) and 6-6 ATS (against the spread) Falcons will be Chris Redman. Redman, who was out of the league the last three seasons, was named the starter for this game by head coach Bobby Petrino on Thursday because of a strong finish in last week's contest.
Redman replaced Joey Harrington at the start of the fourth quarter with Atlanta trailing 21-3 at St. Louis. The backup completed 16-of-24 passes for 172 yards and two touchdowns in a 28-16 loss.
Redman spent four seasons with Baltimore, playing 10 games with six starts, but his career was sidetracked by shoulder and back problems. He didn't play at all from 2004-06, getting cut by New England and Tennessee and flopping in a tryout with Cincinnati.
The Falcons come into this one having lost three consecutive games SU for the third time this year, and they've failed to cover the spread during the skid. They are 2-4 SU and ATS at home this season.
NFL wagering should primarily be based on stats, trends past and present performances of teams, and how a signal caller is playing. But with Atlanta playing ''musical quarterbacks'' all the before mentioned factors are basically meaningless.
But for the number crunchers, the Falcons are scoring a league's second-worst 14.3 points per game and collecting 299.3 yards offensively. On defense, they're allowing 22.7 points and 332.7 yards per game.
Here are all the key trends for Atlanta, however, don't bank too heavily on them because the changes under center make them unstable.
- Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 14.
- Falcons are 10-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Falcons are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.
New Orleans has won three straight against Atlanta, including a victory on Oct. 21 at the Superdome. The Falcons led 16-14 in the fourth quarter before Drew Brees' 4-yard touchdown pass to Reggie Bush put the Saints ahead for good as they went on to win 22-16 but failed to cover as the 9-point favorites.
Brees has been strong against Atlanta. In four career starts, he's manufactured a stout quarterback rating of 100.5 with a 69.9 percent completion rating. He has five touchdowns and two interceptions while averaging 246.5 yards per game versus the Falcons.
The Saints are 5-7 SU and 4-8 ATS having dropped the cash in two of their last three, including last week's 27-23 home loss to Tampa Bay. Brees was 17-of-23 passing for 179 yards and two touchdowns in the defeat. The Saints gained a season-low 246 yards while allowing 466, a season high.
Receiver Joe Horn, who spent seven seasons in New Orleans before signing with Atlanta this year, had four catches for 38 yards as he returned from a hamstring strain.
Despite a difficult season, the Saints still have a shot at the wild card as they're one game behind Detroit, Minnesota and Arizona for the last spot making this a must win game.
Last year, the Saints ranked fifth overall in offense with 25.8 points per game, but this season they're posting 22.2 to be mid-pack in the league. New Orleans is managing to put up 343.9 yards per game with a passing attack that's collecting a respectable 264.7. Defensively, the Saints are surrendering 23.3 points and 351.7 yards.
- Saints are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in December.
- Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.
- Saints are 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC South.
- Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on field turf.
- Saints are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
NFL betting odds list New Orleans the 6-point favorites with a game total of 43.
- Saints are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite.
- Saints are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
- Falcons are 2-14-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
Analysis: The combination of Brees' success versus the Falcons, the Saints earning a payday in five of the last seven meetings and New Orleans will be playing for their playoff lives creates a cover win by the Saints. As well, Redman could show some nerves in his first start on primetime in several years.
NFL Free Picks: New Orleans Saints -6
> > Check Week 14 Odds Here
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