Posted on 1/18/2008 6:24:54 PM

NFL Football Betting Props – Tom Brady’s Passing Yards

By Charles Jay

Tom Brady averaged 300 yards passing per game in the regular season. So in the AFC Championship Game, in which the Patriots are listed as a 13.5-point favorite in the BetUS NFL football betting odds, will he do better than average in that regard?

BetUS NFL Betting Props

AFC Championship Game - January 20

TOM BRADY

Over 299.5 yards -130

Under 299.5 yards -110

Obviously the Patriots are aware that Lawrence Maroney is fully capable of being a major spark to its offense. Maroney had 122 yards rushing against the Jaguars last weekend and provided tremendous balance to a New England offense that did show much balance during the undefeated regular season. In this game against San Diego, it is no secret that one of the Chargers' objectives is to get some pressure on Brady when he drops back to pass. Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips had 21 combined quarterback sacks this season. What this all means is that New England has to keep San Diego's defense "honest," so to speak.

It is entirely possible that they will do that in much the same way they did against Jacksonville - by utilizing the run and the short passing game. In case you don't remember, Brady is an old hand at this, employing a short passing attack in his initial years in New England and also last season, when he didn't have a lot of game-breaking receivers, as he does now. He averaged 6.8 yards an attempt last season, and is 7.2 for his career.

Last week Brady was able to effectively chip away at the Jacksonville defense, completing 26 of 28 passes. Of course, those passes produced just 262 yards. But it allowed Brady to get rid of the ball quickly and avoid the kind of pressure that can force mistakes.

Sure, Brady would love to get Randy Moss loose for big gains. But San Diego's cornerbacks are capable, and it is likely that the opportunistic and dangerous Antonio Cromartie will see a lot of action against Moss. Brady will be happy to take what the defense makes available to him, which will be a lot of passes underneath to Wes Welker and throws to the running backs like Maroney, Kevin Faulk and Heath Evans.

Even in the earlier meetings between these two, when San Diego didn't quite have things together and Moss and Welker had eight catches apiece, Brady threw for just 279 yards against the Charger defense in the 38-14 win.

We're going to move with the "under" here. That's UNDER 299.5 yards as it is listed in the BetUS NFL betting props.

JAY'S PLAY: UNDER 299.5 YARDS (-110) ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com is a member of the NFL too - that is, "not for long" if you don't get results. He is now a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)