Posted on 12/28/2007 12:42:18 PM

NFL Betting Action - Bengals (- 3) vs. Dolphins (+ 3)

By D.S. Williamson

The only reason not to look at this game as a great wagering opportunity is if you are strictly one of those fantasy guys who don’t believe in thinking about the last week of the NFL Betting Season.

I’m not one of those guys. I am very, very surprised to see this line. The Miami Dolphins got lucky this year in the sense that they ended up playing a Baltimore Ravens squad that had thrown in the towel about seven weeks prior to their game. If the early season Ravens had shown up, then the Fish would be staring at 0 and 15 at this point.

Don’t expect the Fish to get their second win of the season in this game, but before I get into that, check out these trends:

The Miami Dolphins are 7-19-1 against the spread in their last 27 games versus a team with a losing record.

The Miami Dolphins are 10-26-1 against the spread in their last 37 home games.

I expect these trends to hold in this game even though the Bengals have been on a win-loss pattern in their last seven straight games. The pattern suggests that the Bengals will lose this game, but I just can’t endorse the Fish.

The Dolphins will want to get out of this season as quickly as possible. Their offense is absolutely putrid and don’t look now, but the Bengals’ D has suddenly shown signs of life holding the San Francisco 49’ers to 20 points two weeks ago and the Cleveland Browns to 13 points just last weekend.

The game against the Browns was actually very telling as the only thing the Bengals have to play for at this point in the season is pride. I have no idea why the Bengals are suddenly stepping it up, maybe it’s the lack of pressure, but whatever it is its working.

Expect the Dolphins to lay an egg in this one and wait for the Big Tuna, Bill Parcells, to come down with serious changes in the offseason.

The BetUS NFL betting line is Cincinnati Bengals – 3 against the spread on the road versus the Miami Dolphins.

The Bengals should roll in this one.

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