Posted on 10/17/2007 5:20:13 PM

NFL Betting Trends: Re-cap & Look Forward

By D.S. Williamson

I feel bad for the Arizona Cardinals. They lost Matt Leinart two weekends ago. Then, just this past weekend they lost a resurgent Kurt Warner. I feel bad because they signed Tim Rattay who proved to be not so good in his first foray into the NFL.

What really sucks for the Cards is that they have to play Rattay’s old team this coming Sunday, the Washington Redskins. The Redskins, whose defense was like Swiss cheese last season, has a terrific D this season. They will squash the 9 point underdog Cardinals this Sunday.

That’s not the only big injury from this past Sunday. The Tennessee Titans may have lost their franchise, quarterback Vince Young, this weekend in their game against the Houston Texans. If they haven’t lost him, then he’ll probably be somewhat slowed in the game. That makes the Texans a pretty good bet at – 1.5 points against the spread to beat cover at home. The Texans received the kiss of death by being showcased in Sports Illustrated shortly after the first NFL weekend of the season. Since then, they’ve slowly gone back to their former selves. But, if Vince can’t make those explosive cuts down the sideline or through the Texan defense, then expect the Texans to bounce back this weekend.

My favorite historical trend of the year, only because I want to see how powerful it is, is that the Cowboys hardly ever cover at home when the total in their games is higher than 44 points. The BetUS total in their game this weekend is 47 and climbing. They play a very stout Minnesota Vikings team and the Boys are favored by 10 points against the spread. This is going to be a great game to watch. The Vikings will not go away easily. They play good defense and have one of the top running backs in the league. The Cowboys gave up a lot, emotionally, in their game versus the Patriots last Sunday. Can they bring it up to the necessary level where they will cover 10 points against a decent NFL team? Or, will they play below average and just try to win the game? The Vikings look solid to beat that spread.

The New England Patriots are on the road and, get this; they are an 18 point road favorite! Granted, they are playing the Miami Dolphins who are just a bad, bad team - - but, 18 points? That is crazy. Eventually, the Patriots aren’t going to cover a spread or they’re going to have a bad game, or something crazy is going to happen to one of their key players - - maybe, he’ll get the flu - - or Belichick will forget how to coach for just a second. I don’t know. Something is going to happen. It has to, right? 18 points in a NFL game? The truth about this game is that you can throw out all trends. 18 point is just an impossible point spread to deal with in an NFL game. Impossible.

Suddenly, everybody loves the New Orleans Saints again. They are a BetUS 8.5 point favorites against the spread versus the Atlanta Falcons at home. I have to admit that I’m sort of in love with them again. They were legit this past Sunday night versus the Seattle Seahawks. If they bring pressure like they did versus the Hawks, and there’s no reason to believe they won’t, the Saints should coast against the Falcons. A powerful trend, up until this season, has been the Saints versus their fellow NFC South foes. That trend might come back this season starting this weekend.

I also like the Steelers to man-handle the Broncos on the road. The Steelers are BetUS – 4.5 road favorites against the spread. The Broncos won’t stop that Steelers’ passing game.

Take a hard look at the Colts vs. Jaguars game this weekend as well. The Jags are a BetUS + 4 home dog versus the Colts. If you believe the Jags can score at least 22 points in this one, then the Jags are a great bet. They always cover or beat spreads where they score 22 points or more.

Until next week, good luck!

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